French elections: what will Macron do next?

The New People's Front’s 182 seats are far fewer than the number needed to control the parliament (289 seats are needed). The main election favorite, the far-right National Rally, has only 143 seats. Macron's coalition won 168 seats.

"France has a very unstable parliament, because all three key blocs do not trust each other and have very different programmatic frameworks. Now, for the parliament to be effective, some kind of coalition will have to be formed. And this is not typical for the French political tradition."

Traditionally, the president appoints the head of the government from the largest faction (this does not require parliamentary approval). Therefore, in France, a "minority government"- when the prime minister represents the largest faction but does not have a permanent majority - is the absolute norm.

Yesterday, Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leader of the Rebel France (the most radical party in the left-wing bloc), called on Macron to appoint a prime minister from the NPF. This would allow Melenchon to impose his agenda both within the NPF and in the country as a whole. Let me recall a few points from the bloc's program:

• Raising the minimum wage by 14%.
• Return of the wealth tax. 
• Limiting electricity and fuel prices.
• Recognition of Palestine and sanctions against Netanyahu's government (this gave a lot of votes from the Muslim community).
• As for Ukraine, most parties support the provision of weapons and even more aid, but Melenchon's position is the opposite.

“But now Macron may well refrain from taking this step. The current winner has many internal contradictions within his own bloc.”

And most likely, the president will try to take advantage of the differences between the key components of the NPF - Melenchon, the Socialists, the Communists, and the Greens. The Socialists and Melenchonists are gaining the same number of seats, and this will not allow the Rebel France to claim sole leadership of the NPF.

If Macron is able to take advantage of these differences, it will allow the president's bloc to have a decisive voice in the formation of the coalition.

Moreover, there is already a good base for partnership with the moderate left. The NPF and Macron's bloc cooperated quite productively before the second round, when candidates of both parties withdrew in favor of a higher-rated competitor. The far-right was very angry about this - Bardella, the nominal leader of Le Pen's bloc, called it an "alliance of dishonor," lol. Only the 'Melenchons' and some communists had problems with the withdrawal. The horseshoe rule works.

However, the negotiations will still be difficult. Because France has no experience in forming complex parliamentary coalitions. It is not Germany, Italy, or the Netherlands. Therefore, until there is some understanding of the configuration of the National Assembly, the government will continue to be headed by Gabrielle Attal.

As for Ukraine. This result does not portend any negative changes for us. Both because of the crushing defeat of the far right and because Melenchon failed to become a majority shareholder in the middle of the coalition of the left.

Source

About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist, strategic communications specialist in business, public administration, and politics.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.