BRICS vs. GGUAF: Global West must counteract expansion of Global South

The growth of the BRICS geopolitical axis, which includes countries that only yesterday declared their allegedly pro-Western stance but are now seeking to join, indicates that Russia and China have decided to divide the world into two antagonistic geopolitical poles. At the same time, Beijing and Moscow are doing everything they can to ensure that this civilizational gap widens.

We're witnessing the formation of a new geopolitical and economic alliance. This can be seen as a new kind of imperialism, with China aiming to expand its global influence under the BRICS banner. The countries of the Global South appear to be supporting this, as Beijing promotes the idea of BRICS as a way for them to break free from Western dominance.

China frames all this to them as a beautiful picture of creating a united front to counter the dominance of the West, which has exploited the Third World for centuries. Now, Beijing and Moscow are allegedly giving them the opportunity to make a free choice.

The goal of the Sino-Russian tandem is the same: to stir up the world and thus destroy the international order that was established almost eighty years ago. 

How can the Global West counteract the expansion of the Global South? The situation is much more complicated than many Western politicians currently perceive.

The BRICS alliance is based on a shared animosity toward the Western world and a desire to replace the U.S. dollar with a conventional “rubleyuan” (a hybrid of the ruble and the yuan). However, it is pure fantasy to imagine a single currency comparable to the dollar and the euro, complete with a centralized payment system and its own foreign exchange reserves.

In addition to technical and regulatory challenges, the differences in views and interests among the BRICS countries are too significant. Can we imagine that China and India, which have a territorial dispute over their borders and conflicts over influence in some regions, would agree to use the same currency?

Furthermore, although South Africa and Brazil have expressed a desire to free themselves from U.S. influence, this does not mean they want to sever all ties with it or lose their privileged access to American and European markets.

Thus, the answer to the question of whether BRICS will actually be able to launch a single currency, modeled after the successful euro that was conceived and tested from scratch, is “no.” We can predict that there will be no “rubleyuan” for a very long time. The hopes of creating an alternative to the Western economy and developing an artificial currency to replace the U.S. dollar are very distant, if not unattainable, goals. 

Currently, BRICS includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, as well as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia. Moreover, Argentina and Kazakhstan have refused to join.

It is easy to see how diverse the composition of the BRICS nations is. These states are very different from one another, and their interests often do not align. While one of the declared goals of this grouping - encouraging internal trade - can be conditionally fulfilled, other objectives are more questionable.

Not to mention, the antagonism between India and China is a significant factor behind the divisions within this artificially created alliance. While China's main goal is to lead the Global South, India's ambitions are similar. Additionally, the ten BRICS countries have different positions on relations with the West. And despite Moscow’s emphasis, China does not view Russia as its ally; instead, it defines the relationship as a situational partnership.

According to their geopolitical priorities, the BRICS states can be divided into three conventional groups. 

The first group consists of three countries - China, Russia, and Iran - that are strongly opposed to the United States, united Europe, and the West as a whole, as well as to democratic countries on other continents, such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

The second group includes India, Brazil, and South Africa, which are interested in expanding their joint capabilities but do not intend to break with the West. 

The third group consists of four countries - Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia - that are distant from the West in many ways but still maintain ties with it.

Therefore, the BRICS coalition is far from homogeneous on the geopolitical front. It is likely that the desire to limit the economic hegemony of the United States and the West will continue to serve as a unifying factor for current members and those willing to join. However, it is doubtful that the situational unity underlying the BRICS countries will encourage them to take sides if the need arises.

Nevertheless, BRICS already includes countries rich in natural resources, with large territories and populations. If the U.S. and EU do not become more decisive in the Mediterranean, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, others will step in. This could lead to a diminished influence of the collective West.

It is not yet possible to say that the situation is overly threatening in economic terms. Given the current state of BRICS and the International Monetary Fund's forecasts for gross domestic product in 2024, we can see how much weight this group holds in the global economy.

If we look at nominal GDP in U.S. dollars, the share of the ten countries is about 26 percent. It is clear that China holds the lion's share of the group, followed by India. The BRICS share is significant and indicates the progress made by developing countries, but it still falls short of the G7 countries - the United States, Canada, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy - whose share is about 44 percent of global GDP.

Despite all this, BRICS has become the first step toward a kind of “big bang” aimed at changing the geo-economic balance of the world. At least 40 other countries have expressed a desire to join the club: from Algeria to the Democratic Republic of Congo, from Indonesia to Cuba, and from Azerbaijan and Türkiye to Venezuela. A dangerous coalition is thus forming, uniting great powers like China, India, and Russia with still-developing African, Asian, and Latin American states.

Perhaps it is time for the United States and a united Europe to consider how they can quickly create their own global geopolitical and economic bloc. This could include countries that see themselves as part of Western civilization.

Theoretically, such a bloc could be called GGUAF (Great Britain, Germany, United States, Argentina, France). In addition to the United States, Argentina, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, it could include all countries of the European Union, including Ukraine, as well as Canada, Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines.

By combining all of its geopolitical and economic power, the GGUAF bloc would prevent BRICS from undermining the leading role of Western developed democracies in the international arena. It would also encourage states that have not yet decided whether to choose democracy or totalitarianism to make their final choice.

Source

About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, Ukrainian journalist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.