World War III? Let’s support those holding it back

It would be bad if there were a third world war. That is a reasonable fear to have. By resisting Russia, Ukrainians are making every scenario for such a catastrophe less likely. On the scale of our world, the Ukrainians are the firemen. They are keeping the rest of us safe.

It makes no sense to blame them for Russia's invasion, nor to hinder them from doing their job.  That's no longer fear, but self-destructive panic. Hysteria makes the third world war more likely.

Let's consider, soberly, three familiar scenarios for a third world war: (1) escalation from a conventional war in Europe; (2) escalation from a conventional war in the Pacific; and (3) the spread of nuclear weapons. 

These scenarios for a third world war have not played out because Ukrainians take risks.

Read also: Trump's push to end war in Ukraine seen as weakness in Moscow: Russia rejects 'freeze'

1.  Europe. The traditional scenario for a third world war since the 1940s has been a great-power conflict in Europe, resulting from an invasion led from Moscow. That invasion has taken place. Despite the predictions of almost everyone, Ukraine has resisted Russia's full-scale invasion, thereby keeping the largest war since 1945 contained on its own territory. This comes at an unimaginable cost for Ukrainians. Ukraine does depend on weapons supplies from its allies. Should we cease these, because of our own fears or for some other reason, Ukraine can lose, and the war will very likely expand.
2. The Pacific. In the twenty-first century, the main scenario for a third world war has been a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which provokes an American response. That invasion has not taken place and likely will not, so long as Ukraine resists and is able to resist. Whereas the Ukrainians are containing a war in Europe, they are deterring a war in the Pacific. 
3. Nuclear proliferation. Russia has been blackmailing Ukraine with nuclear war since February 2022. If the Ukrainians had yielded to this nuclear blackmail and not resisted, then the world would now be covered with nuclear weapons. If we cease to support Ukraine, we not only kill the people who have been keeping us safe, we create a world in which nuclear weapons spread and nuclear war is much more likely.

Read also: The West isn’t banking on a “quick peace”

Hysteria leads to the worship of the Big Strong Man and the dream of some easy answer. The people who spread hysteria about the third world war tend to believe in Big Strong Putin and Big Strong Trump.

Big Strong Putin talks about nuclear war, therefore we must panic and force the Ukrainians to surrender. Putin has been talking about nuclear war non-stop for almost three years. The Russians themselves do not take this seriously. The Kremlin knows that there are American hysterics who will be vulnerable to nuclear rhetoric, and so they keep trying. But giving in to Big Strong Putin makes a third world war more likely.

Big Strong Trump spread the fantasy that he could end the Russo-Ukrainian war twenty-four hours after being elected. This was nonsense, as we have seen. The Russians hope to maneuver Trump into cutting off weapons to Ukraine, which would make the war easier for them, though it would not end it. If Trump does cut off weapons deliveries to Ukraine, that would make Ukrainian defeat more likely, which makes a third world war more likely.

The Russo-Ukrainian war is not a television show or a podcast. It cannot be ended by fake masculinity or real hysteria. It cannot be ended by listening to the propaganda of those who started it, nor to the promises that guarantee magical peace. One side will win and another side will lose.

The Ukrainians have taken a titanically difficult situation and made it as easy as possible for us. By resisting they have improved our national security in every possible way. The cost to them on the battlefield, in proportion of lives lost to population, has been about the same as the cost to Americans of both world wars taken together. Nobody in their right mind wants a third world war. So let's not bring it about by abandoning the people who are holding it back.

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About the Author. Timothy Snyder, historian, professor at Yale University

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