Ukraine’s GDP may drop 1.5% due to lack of USAID assistance — analyst

He shared the information on Espreso TV.

"This is to be expected. The question is what will happen after these 90 days of suspended U.S. aid: which programs will be resumed, in what volume, how they will operate, and whether new grants will be launched. This means a delay in funding for us, which is serious. The [U.S.] president may have thought that these funds were only received by NGOs, but the main recipient of international aid was the state itself. Since the start of the war, this organization has provided about $30 billion in direct budgetary support to Ukraine. This is significant assistance from the American people to Ukraine during this difficult time," Neskhodovskyi stated.

Analyzing Ukraine's foreign trade, the total sales volume last year amounted to just over $60 billion, while exports reached about $40 billion, the analyst noted.

"As of today, these are our figures. Currently, USAID assistance amounts to approximately $7 billion. The absence of these funds means we won’t be able to purchase essential goods from our suppliers. People often perceive this aid as funding for legislative work, seminars, and conferences. However, the majority of it consists of material assets: generators for schools, educational and healthcare institutions, building repairs after strikes, and funding for school bomb shelter construction programs," he stated.

This aid also covers evacuation support for villages, humanitarian assistance, and aid for internally displaced persons. In other words, it's not just salaries but also numerous orders for local suppliers. However, even the lack of salaries means people won’t be able to spend money, which will impact the economy, Neskhodovskyi concluded.

USAID funding suspension

U.S. President Donald Trump, on his first day in office, decided to temporarily suspend all U.S. foreign aid programs for 90 days to conduct audits.

American diplomats urgently requested the exclusion of programs related to Ukraine from the 90-day foreign aid freeze directive issued by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

On January 26, media reports citing sources stated that USAID had been instructed to halt all projects in Ukraine.

The next day, USAID officially confirmed the suspension of funding for all programs and projects in Ukraine. The agency had been financing various educational, scientific, media, and cultural projects, as well as purchasing medical equipment and supplies for communities hosting displaced persons. It also supported mobile medical teams, vaccination programs, rehabilitation, and psychological assistance.

"People simply do not realize the scale of USAID and other U.S. programs because they never engaged in self-promotion," BBC quoted MP Mykyta Poturayev, head of the parliamentary committee on humanitarian and information policy.

According to him, USAID was also a key donor for many international programs, including UNDP and UNICEF.

"USAID was often listed as just one of the partners, but in reality, it was the main, systemic donor. The losses for Ukraine from freezing this aid are much greater than we can imagine," Poturayev emphasized.

Deputy Head of the Ukrainian President's Office Iryna Vereshchuk called the temporary suspension of USAID funding an unexpected and troubling development.

On January 29, the Ukrainian Parliament announced the start of consultations with European partners to seek alternatives to USAID assistance.