New EU sanctions could disrupt Russia’s oil exports

 U.S. sanctions, set to take full effect by mid-March, could significantly impact Russia’s oil exports, potentially reducing them by a third, a Ukrainian analyst writes for the Resurgam Telegram channel.

According to insider reports, the Kremlin is planning a provocation by unloading sanctioned oil from restricted tankers. The goal is to convince Chinese and Indian buyers that the new U.S. administration will not strictly enforce Biden-era sanctions, encouraging them to continue purchasing Russian oil in March and April.

Amid these developments, Asian buyers are already exploring alternative suppliers from the Arab world, Kazakhstan, and Africa. If the trend continues and the U.S. enforces existing sanctions, Moscow’s energy revenues could face a severe hit by late March or early April.

In response to the Kremlin’s maneuver, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urgently contacted U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who confirmed that the U.S. will maintain maximum pressure on Russia. This message serves as a warning to Indian and Chinese buyers considering risky deals with Moscow.

The EU’s upcoming sanctions package is expected to face resistance from Hungary and Slovakia. While additional tariffs on Russian agricultural products and fertilizers will likely pass without unanimous approval, energy-related restrictions on the shadow fleet and LNG require consensus and may be vetoed by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. If postponed until March, these sanctions could still align with U.S. measures, amplifying their impact on Russia’s economy.

The likelihood of EU energy sanctions in March depends on three factors:

• The potential removal of Fico’s government in Slovakia
•  The formation of a new government in Germany 
• Increased pressure on Hungary, particularly from Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who is leading EU efforts to push for stricter measures against Moscow.

Aware of the growing risk to its oil and gas revenues, the Kremlin is deploying a series of disinformation campaigns to counteract Western pressure.