Trump and Putin's secret talks: no concrete agreements exist

“I've had it,” Trump said in response to a direct question from journalists, emphasizing that he hopes for new contacts with the Russian leader to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

However, Trump did not specify when exactly his contacts with Putin took place. Journalists had asked whether they occurred before he was elected U.S. president, after he officially took office, or following his inauguration. Nevertheless, Trump acknowledges confidential contacts with the Russian leader - contacts the Kremlin does not disclose.

This, in turn, confirms that this confidential channel remains the primary line of diplomacy between Trump’s Washington and Putin’s Moscow. Even the closest aides of both the U.S. and Russian leaders may be unaware of what the two heads of state discuss.

And, of course, in such a situation, it would be naive to expect Trump to take into account the views of the Ukrainian president or European leaders in his dialogue with Putin. His aides tend to favor a more traditional diplomatic approach - one Trump has historically paid little attention to. Figures like U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz have stated that Trump administration officials in Europe will discuss possible ways to end the Russia-Ukraine war with European leaders and the Ukrainian president.

Yet, as we can see, Trump does not wait for the results of such talks or even his own consultations with European leaders. He is convinced that he can resolve issues through confidential discussions with the Russian leader. His concept is simple: leaders of major powers make deals among themselves, and everyone else agrees - at least with the broad outlines of the decisions they reach.

At the same time, we must understand that there are no concrete agreements between Trump and Putin. Trump has never had a plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war, nor does he have one now, and it may not emerge in the near future. If he had reached any concrete agreements with Putin that would indicate the Russia-Ukraine war could be ended without the U.S. president losing face, the talks between the U.S. and Russian leaders would have long ago moved into the public sphere. A meeting between them would also seem more likely, which, it appears, is still being prepared confidentially in both the White House and the Kremlin.

However, regarding the meeting, as we understand it, both leaders have entirely different goals, and each wants to achieve their own objectives before the meeting even happens. For Putin, there is no need to negotiate the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war, the outcome of which he envisions as the destruction of Ukraine's statehood and the transformation of the Russian Federation into a new empire like the Soviet Union.

And Putin sincerely hopes that Donald Trump's failure to understand this fact will help him achieve his goals in the difficult years ahead. However, Donald Trump has absolutely no interest in Putin's empire. In fact, he would like to end the Russia-Ukraine war and constantly reminds Putin that he should not harbor illusions but instead focus on the state of his own economy.

Thus, Trump would only want to meet with Putin on the condition that, during their meeting, the Russian leader could speak concretely - if not about ending the Russia-Ukraine war at certain strategic points, at least about a ceasefire - so that Donald Trump could at least tell his audience that people are no longer dying on the Russia-Ukraine front.

The fact that the leaders of the United States and the Russian Federation are communicating with each other, yet no outlines of such an agreement are visible, again reminds us that talking is one thing, but making agreements is much harder when both leaders have completely different views on life and are supported by entirely different political forces and allies around the world.

While Donald Trump dreams of separating Russia from China, another dangerous foreign policy illusion of the American president and his supporters, Chinese President Xi Jinping announces that he will arrive in Russia on May 9, 2025, further emphasizing the strategic partnership between the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation in their confrontation with the United States. After all, it doesn’t matter whether it’s Trump or not.

While Trump would like to end the war in Europe and shift the responsibility for Ukraine's security to his European allies, Putin wants to seize the Ukrainian state and create serious security threats for those very European allies, hoping that the United States under Trump will finally leave the European continent and will no longer hinder Russia from becoming the geopolitical hegemon of Europe.

So the question arises: what exactly are Trump and Putin talking about? And, of course, it would be very interesting to find out who was the real initiator of this phone conversation. After all, we all understand that with Trump’s self-image, it’s unlikely he would have been the first to reach out to the Russian leader.

If Putin was indeed the first to make such a move, it might indicate that the economic situation in Russia is truly dire. The Russian leader may want to create a pause in the Russia-Ukraine war to gather strength for a decisive new strike against Ukrainian positions. He might hope that Trump will assist him in this pause. But again, these are merely our speculations.

Because there could be a situation where even Trump, who, as we well remember, was visibly uneasy in Putin's presence during his first presidency, might have made the first move, hoping that Putin would meet him halfway in halting the hostilities.

This mutual misunderstanding between Trump and Putin, along with the possibility that they might underestimate each other's ambitions and potential, could be the foundation for both understanding between the two leaders and a new serious conflict between the United States and the Russian Federation. This conflict could extend beyond Ukraine to encompass all of Europe if misunderstandings between Moscow and Washington grow, fueled by the disillusionment of both Trump and Putin in their mutual contacts. However, this will only become clear with time. For now, we only know that Trump and Putin are communicating with each other.

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About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, laureate of the National Shevchenko Prize of Ukraine.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.