KSF analysis: White House wants quick truce, but what next?

Trump says the U.S. can provide financial support to Ukraine in exchange for Ukrainian minerals. The American president spoke with Putin. Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with U.S. Vice President Vance during the Munich Security Conference.

This is stated in the analysis from the Kyiv Security Forum (KSF).

The statements of U.S. President Trump and his National Security Advisor Michael Waltz indicate a desire to quickly declare a temporary truce and the absence of a real plan to end the war. That is why retired General Kellogg denied information about the presentation of such a plan. The idea of ​​U.S. cooperation in the field of rare earth metals and minerals should be perceived as evidence of the new American administration's business approach to solving geopolitical problems. This statement is aimed both at the Republican Party electorate, which is told that aid to Ukraine will be in exchange for its resources, and at the likely economic cooperation in the long term. The Kremlin deliberately does not confirm contacts with Trump in order to belittle both the value of such contacts and the strength of the new American administration. The Kremlin’s thesis “we are not afraid of Trump” has become a new media signal in Russia.

No breakthrough ideas should be expected in Munich. There will be no plan to end the war, formed by the U.S., the EU, and Ukraine. There will also be no approved format for negotiations (which the Kremlin is ready for only in the form of accepting the terms of Ukraine’s surrender).

Without the U.S., it is impossible to provide real guarantees of Ukraine’s security. The U.S., the EU, and Moscow know this.

Kellogg’s visit to Ukraine may have an effect in the event of an announcement of the preparation of a new aid package. This is precisely what will be evidence of a desire to support Ukraine. But hopes for such a decision, unfortunately, are illusory.

'We estimate the probability of the continuation of warfare in the next 6 months at 9 out of 10 (same as the previous assessment) and the risks of unfavorable negotiating conditions for Ukraine at 8 out of 10 (one point higher than our previous assessment)'