War will last years, until Russia's economy is exhausted: What Trump might ask Putin

This was the view shared by journalist Vitaliy Portnykov on Espreso.

"What will Trump ask Putin for? Maybe a truce — at least long enough to hold Ukraine’s presidential election. If so, Trump will try to convince Putin that it’s in his interest, making it easier to negotiate with a new Ukrainian president. But Putin might not even grasp what Trump wants. He may not be looking to sign anything at all," Portnykov said.

Trump might assume he can pause the war, change Ukraine’s leadership, and then blame the new government when negotiations stall. But this is all highly speculative, Portnykov noted.

In his view, the war will likely continue for years — until Russia’s economic potential is fully drained. Trump may not be aiming to stop the war but to weaken Russia while maintaining military support for Ukraine. To justify this, he’ll need to make it clear that the U.S. isn’t doing this for free. That’s where rare earth metals come in.

"This could be the excuse he gives his supporters — why the U.S. is backing Ukraine. Biden, they’ll say, gave away money for nothing, while Trump is securing billions in return. But that’s a long game — winning the war, ensuring security, conducting geological surveys, bringing in investors, and launching production. It takes 10 to 15 years before any mining begins. Still, it’s a big diplomatic win for Zelenskyy. He pitched this plan to Biden, Harris, and Trump, and Trump liked one key detail — rare earth metals," Portnykov explained.

Putin might consider a ceasefire if he sees Russia’s economy failing to sustain both war and stability. That could push him toward ending the war, but it all depends on many factors, he added.

"Why would Trump offer Putin anything when Ukraine is still fighting? What does he have to offer? "Stop people from dying in war"? Great. But what’s the actual offer for Putin? Four regions? Putin doesn’t need them as a goal. Blocking Ukraine from NATO? That’s a joke. Demilitarizing Ukraine? That just guarantees another war in a year. Trump and Rubio keep insisting they don’t want another war in one year — or four. Trump may not even think he’ll leave office. Maybe he believes he’ll spark a revolution and stay president for life. That may never happen, but he might think so," Portnykov concluded.

• On February 5, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov repeated Russia’s narrative about Zelenskyy’s “illegitimacy” but said Moscow is open to negotiations.
• On February 6, U.S. special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, denied reports that he would present Trump’s peace plan at the Munich Security Conference. According to him, Trump himself will do that.
• On February 7, Ukrainian presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak spoke with Kellogg about his upcoming visit to Ukraine and the situation on the front lines.
• Also on February 7, Kellogg stated that Trump is prepared to double sanctions on Russia to end the war, especially in the energy sector.