Azerbaijan-Russia tensions soar after plane crash: what it means for Ukraine

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue. 

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia has taken a sharp downturn following a recent incident involving the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane. What initially seemed like a tragic accident has evolved into a diplomatic crisis, marked by accusations, refusals, and growing hostility from Moscow.

Following the plane's downing, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev demanded three key actions from Moscow: access to the investigation materials, a public apology at the highest level, and punishment for those responsible. While Russian leader Vladimir Putin offered a private apology during a phone call, Moscow refused to meet the other demands, including a public statement of regret. The refusal to take full responsibility or provide compensation only deepened the rift.

In response, Azerbaijan began applying diplomatic pressure. On February 5, Aliyev issued a symbolic warning by donating $1 million in aid to Ukraine—a move seen as a clear message to Moscow. The next day, Azerbaijan revealed its plans to prepare a lawsuit for the International Court of Justice, signaling that legal action could follow if Russia did not acknowledge its role in the incident. However, Baku left the door open for peaceful resolution, provided Moscow accepted responsibility and took corrective measures.

Rather than seeking reconciliation, Moscow’s response was defiant. On February 7, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the idea of further apologies or statements. The next day, Russian media launched an aggressive campaign, accusing Azerbaijan of escalating tensions in the region. A prominent Russian propagandist published an article blaming Baku and, unexpectedly, the British, for inciting conflict in the Caucasus. The narrative portrayed Azerbaijan as a destabilizing force, even suggesting its involvement in terrorist activities.

Moscow’s strategy seems to extend beyond its conflict with Azerbaijan. It coincides with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s plans to phase out Russia’s peacekeeping presence in Armenia. Russian media began portraying Pashinyan as a leader compromising Armenia’s national security, aiming to pressure him into maintaining the Russian military’s presence.

The shift in Russia’s tactics is telling. Before the plane incident, Russian media rarely criticized Azerbaijan directly. Since the crisis, however, Azerbaijan has become a key target of disinformation campaigns, indicating a deliberate Kremlin directive to escalate tensions and regain influence in the region.

As the standoff continues, relations between Baku and Moscow may deteriorate further. President Aliyev is likely to intensify his symbolic and diplomatic gestures to assert Azerbaijan’s position. Meanwhile, the risk of greater instability in the Caucasus grows, with Moscow determined to protect its strategic interests—regardless of the cost.