ISW assesses Putin's 'theory of victory' focused on Ukraine's exhaustion in war with Russia

The Institute for the Study of War reports.

Accrding to Putin, Russia does not need to conduct another call-up of reservists similar to Russia‘s September 2022 partial mobilization because Russia is not trying to rapidly achieve its military objectives in Ukraine. At the same time, he acknowledged that the current number of Russian military contingent committed to the war in Ukraine would be insufficient for a rapid victory but suggested that Russian forces are instead pursuing a more gradual approach.

Putin stated that Russian forces aim to "squeeze" Ukrainian forces out "of those territories that should be under Russian control" and therefore Russia does not need to conduct another mobilization wave. 

Analysts suggest that Putin's assessment that gradual Russian gains will allow Russia to achieve his goals in Ukraine is predicated on the assumption that Ukrainian forces will be unable to liberate any significant territory that Russian forces seize and that the Russian military will be able to sustain offensive operations that achieve gradual tactical gains regardless of heavy losses.

“Putin's theory of victory rests on Russia's ability to outlast and overcome pledged Western security assistance to Ukraine and Ukrainian efforts to mobilize more of its economy and population for the war effort, indicating that Putin likely assesses that Russian forces will be able to leverage their advantages in manpower and materiel,” the analysts said.

• In addition, Vladimir Putin is promoting the narrative that Russia is ready to negotiate with Ukraine.