Another "peaceful" statement from Putin: what does it mean?

1. As the new year approaches, it appears that there will be three main peace plans: the US plan (its framework was recently outlined in Foreign Affairs and focuses on freezing the conflict, preventing its recurrence, and waiting for Putin's death); the Ukrainian peace plan; and the Chinese plan, which, at this stage, largely mirrors what was described in Foreign Affairs.

2. China's strategy, as I understand it, is as follows: 1. To assume full leadership of BRICS. 2. To establish a significant presence in several EU countries (not just Hungary), creating a strong foothold for further influence in Europe. This context also sheds light on Lukashenko's efforts to normalize Belarus' relations with its neighbors. 3. China will attempt to ensure that Putin does not act irrationally after the conflict is frozen.

3. When discussing BRICS, it's important to recognize that it is not a rigid alliance like NATO but rather a fragmented coalition of diverse states that are unlikely to ever form military alliances. Although, in theory, they could agree to avoid military conflicts among themselves (despite the Cold War example showing that wars between socialist countries are possible), we should stop viewing this entity in an overly simplistic manner.

4. In this model, it's still unclear how the United States will respond to China. Currently, the primary global conflict (or more specifically, the struggle between China and the United States) is not our war but the contest for influence in the EU and Australia. The peace plan for Ukraine is a component of this larger struggle.

5. I would also like to highlight that Poland aims to become the primary hub for both China and the United States in Central and Eastern Europe (returning to our simplistic view of the world). We need to pay close attention to this development, as after the war, there is a significant chance that we might find ourselves conditionally dependent on Warsaw's decisions.

Are negotiations possible before the US elections? In my opinion, it is unrealistic, although it cannot be 100% ruled out. But again, the main players will make all their decisions not so much based on the situation in Ukraine as on the prospects of a big battle for the EU and Australia. And this is the main challenge for us (apart from the military one, of course).

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

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