Ukrainian forces are not withdrawing from Bakhmut to new lines of defense. Military expert Serhiy Zgurets  

The situation in the Bakhmut direction

I would like to start our review with Bakhmut, where the situation remains the most difficult. In fact, this is one of the five areas where Russia is trying to implement its deadlocked offensive.

Yesterday, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Russian troops conducted unsuccessful combat operations on Sunday in Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions, but of course, details are important. Coming back to Bakhmut, I had a conversation with my comrade from our assault regiment near Bakhmut, armed with 105 mm howitzers. He says there are so many targets that they do not have time to destroy them. The amount of enemy manpower and mobile targets on a 4 km stretch is so large that it is beyond the pale. Even a significant amount of artillery on our side does not always help. The most important thing is to have enough ammunition, although there are sometimes nuances with this. According to his estimates, the ratio in artillery is about 2:1, and as for losses, it is about 1:10 when we talk about manpower. Yesterday, Ukraine’s Defence Minister Reznikov said that on the Eastern front, Russia loses 500 killed and 900 wounded per day. For more than 7 months, attacks on Bakhmut were unsuccessful. Then, at the cost of significant losses, Russian troops captured Soledar and now continues to attack Bakhmut from 3 directions.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have counterattacked near Bakhmut

The most difficult situation is in the northern part of the city, where Russian troops are trying to push through from Berkhivka and Yahidne along the Bakhmut-Sloviansk highway towards Chasiv Yar. Why is it important? Chasiv Yar is one of the last or nearly the last roads through Khromove that supplies Bakhmut. In the southern part, Russia has been trying to attack from the direction of Ivanivske and a little further east for several days in a row. Yesterday, it was reported that the distance from Yahidne, where Russian troops entered, to Ivanivske was within 5 kilometers. Russia is trying to approach this area from both sides. In this corridor, there is an important road through Khromove, which is under Russian fire, and that there is a risk of encirclement of the Ukrainian group in Bakhmut. But today the information is somewhat different. Russian troops have been pushed back from Ivanivske, and in the northern part of Bakhmut Ukrainian troops have stabilized the front line and recaptured several important positions west of Berkhivka and Yahidne. A couple of hours ago, a counterattack by Ukrainian troops was still underway. The fighting is taking place in the area where two roads intersect near Paraskoviivka. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to get to the rear of the Russian offensive group that advanced from Berkhivka. The dynamics in this section of the front are quite fast. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the commander of the Land Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, is there. In any case, Ukrainian units' withdrawal from Bakhmut to new defense lines seems to be out of the question. Ukraine Armed Forces continue to eliminate Russian troops, although in extremely difficult conditions. This is the case for all areas of the frontline at the beginning of the second year of the newest phase of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Mortar famine

Ihor Lapin, an officer with the Armed Forces of Ukraine and MP, recalled quite good statistics in the context of artillery confrontation, i.e. 1:2. We remember well the concentration of Russian artillery at the beginning of the war. Now they can't create fire shafts because they don't have a 1:10 or 1:100 advantage in artillery, but they are trying to replace the lack of artillery with infantry attacks. Of course, it is harder for our artillery to work against infantry attacks because urban development and agglomeration make it difficult. The issue of supplying our infantry on the front lines with mortars and mortar shells is also acute, and we have been “starving” for mortar shells for many months, especially for 120 mm caliber. There are also problems with 82 mm caliber and 60 mm caliber. So, limiting the purchase of mortars only and not fully establishing the supply of mortar shells is a serious challenge for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, which is actually responsible for procurement. Russia’s attempts to attack Vuhledar were unsuccessful. They succeeded in some small areas, but the Ukrainian military offset them and regained their positions. However, there is intelligence about a large concentration of Russians in the Vuhledar area. We understand why Russia needs this. According to unconfirmed information, conscripts of the Russian army have been deployed there. We remember how Russia would prepare its society for the fact that it would deploy them. Ihor Lapin believes they did it for a reason. Conscripts are trained, hardy, but, most importantly, they are more obedient to their commanders than the mobilized ones. Russia will use this reserve, and in the hot phase in the spring, the first to use its last reserve will lose. Ihor Lapin thinks that AFU Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi understands this, and that our reserves, which were prepared for counterattacks, will continue being accumulated, but Russia is not yet using all of its cards. Whoever is the first to attack will reveal the areas of concentration of their reserves. We also realize this. The Ukrainian Armed Forces officer is also waiting for the delivery of weapons with a range of 150 kilometers, as they would help to hit more distant logistics centers. Speaking of Vuhledar, it would be logical to cut the logistics routes between Crimea and Donbas with something that can fly over 150 kilometers. Melitopol is 75 kilometers from Vuhledar, but we can't bring HIMARS, for instance, to the zero line, so we cannot reach it.

The risk of slowing down the provision of Western equipment to Ukraine 

According to Ihor Lapin, against the backdrop of China's escalating rhetoric, no one will stop our potential by suspending or slowing down the provision of assistance. Our initiative, which was developing well last fall, has slowed down due to a decrease in arms supplies. The second point is that when everyone said we would counterattack in Kherson, we did it in the Kharkiv region. What will we gain by cutting the logistics route between Crimea and Donbas? It’s not like we are going to counterattack in Crimea today. Even if we don't recapture everything up to Chongar and gain a foothold there, it will be difficult to enter such a narrow corridor and clear out Russia’s Crimea and Donetsk groups. It depends on the width of the corridor, but we don't have air superiority over those territories, so going in without cover means putting everything in danger, if we take the direction from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol. Then we will have to expand the corridor to Donetsk and Crimea. Will there be enough forces without air cover? This is a very risky thing, although there is no complete picture of the intelligence available in Russia to base analysis on. On the other hand, there is no reliable information about our reserve. We know that the National Guard is currently forming reserve counteroffensive brigades. Bradleys, which can move quickly through forests and fields, are on their way to us. We understand that tanks are on the way, but all equipment must be covered from the air. If this is not ensured, there will be a problem not only with Lancets guided by Orlans, kamikaze drones, but also with the aviation, which has about 400 aircrafts concentrated. This is a very large number. We cannot cope with Stingers and Iglas alone, because in such a small area, such a large number of aircraft can be very difficult to handle. Our citizens believe in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and there are only two people who know about the possible directions of the offensive: God and Zaluzhnyi.

Ukraine's counteroffensive

Ihor Lapin believes that the war has nowhere else to escalate, as aviation, Iskanders, artillery are already involved, and people are being killed. Regarding the nuclear threat, Ihor Lapin drew attention to China's statement, despite all the negativity in the 12 points of the Chinese peace plan, on the non-use of nuclear weapons. The second point is geopolitics. The question is how the US and the EU will react to China's proposals to supply Russia with lethal weapons. If they hesitate, they will get an even greater escalation. Without air cover, without aircraft, we may lose that armor during possible counterattacks, including the recapture of Crimea. So either they give us everything at once and we have the opportunity to launch a quick counteroffensive, end the war, which will save the West money on financing weapons for Ukraine and supporting our economy during the war. Or, if we think that Putin will go even further, we no longer panic about nuclear weapons, because if this happens, it will not solve the issue of war. It can only kill a large number of people. But it will not solve the issue of the possible success of the Russian ground forces in Ukraine. Russia understands this, and China made its statement in this context. The fact that they insinuated that they would give Russia lethal weapons, and the EU and the US responded, is just a statement, an intelligence report. But there hasn't been any actual delivery yet. If this happens, not only will the West need to impose hellish sanctions against China, but it will be a war of civilizational choice, democracy or authoritarianism. If the authoritarian regimes win, there will be Taiwan tomorrow, and completely different geopolitical problems. If the US abandons us, its guarantee of global security can be put to rest. The global system of collective security ended when Russia invaded Crimea, because not a single international treaty signed by Russia, the US, China, and the UK worked. When they start to mislead us into thinking that they will negotiate or help, there are copies of the Budapest Memorandum in Ukrainian, Russian and English. All are equivalent. They guaranteed us territorial integrity. The UK is our good lawyer on the world stage among the major geopolitical players. Ihor Lapin doubts that Russia will engage in a clinch, as it still has problems after the coronavirus, and the collapse of the economy could have negative consequences for Xi Jinping. The domestic consumer will not eat everything produced by China. Everything will depend on the West's willingness to play all-in. There is no other way out. If China supplies Russia with lethal weapons, it will be much harder for us. Although the speed of possible delivery of these weapons and our counterattack is debatable. If we defeat Russia's ground forces first, there will be no one to supply other weapons.

A counteroffensive and counterattack is not a turning point in the war. It can be its outcome. These are different steps that follow each other. How much will this speed up our victory? In Russia, there is no society - it is "tolerants" who will continue to send their sons and husbands to war, so they will not rebel against another mobilization, conscripts. Ihor Lapin noted that he does not believe that Russia's elites will oppose Putin for the sake of money. The victory for Ukraine means the NATO umbrella and the collapse of the Russian empire with no threat coming from it anymore, demilitarization. There are many Putins, many doubles. If it is officially announced that he is "gone," there will be an empty throne and a war of all against all will begin in Russia. That's why Ihor Lapin welcomes the creation of private armies in Russia, because they will then fall among themselves and Ukraine will be relieved. But the throne is not empty, Putin rules, and Russians are ready to die for their king. Russian propaganda has led Russians to believe that the collective West is eager to destroy Putin. In defense of him, Russians are fighting against the West and NATO in "brotherly" Ukraine. The military officer emphasized that he did not believe that Ukraine's victory in the counterattack and counteroffensive would break the Russian government's system of governance. These hacks will hurt Russia, we will capture trophies, but the war will not end there.