Ukraine has no alternative to sea for grain exports – Centre for Transport Strategies

This was stated by Serhiy Vovk, Director of the Centre for Transport Strategies, who was speaking on Espreso TV.

"If you look at the logistics of grain in the last months of the grain deal, it was very simple. 50% of the grain was shipped by sea from Odesa ports, 25% from Danube ports, and another 25% went across the western border to Europe. By and large, we have no alternative to the sea, because Europe is closing its borders to us to protect agricultural markets," he said.

Vovk added that Ukraine has other options, not alternatives, such as the Danube and the western border.

"Their use will not allow exporting products in the volumes that Ukraine needs. It will also be an extremely expensive export. It will be so expensive that it will not be profitable for companies to produce grain because it will be beyond profitability. It is possible to work with a loss for a week, two or three, but no one will do it for several months," the expert believes.

In his opinion, the current situation with the grain deal should be viewed not as a problem but as an opportunity.

"We need to change the unfavourable rules of the game to those that are more in line with our national interests. It is not easy, but to be tied to an agreement with the aggressor is a road to nowhere. We have already gone through this, and I do not understand why we should fall into this trap again," Vovk concluded.

Russia's termination of the grain deal

On July 16, the last ship loaded with Ukrainian agricultural products under the initiative left the port of Odesa. On July 17, Russia announced the termination of the grain deal. In response, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that it was necessary to continue using the grain corridor even despite Russia's withdrawal from the agreement. And Kuleba began urgent consultations at the UN.

The White House has condemned Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal, which played a crucial role in lowering global food prices.

On July 18, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov reported "certain risks" for parties that try to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative without Russia's participation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that in order to provide food to the world's most vulnerable countries and preserve the ability to export Ukrainian goods, it is critical to restore transportation links across the Black Sea.

On July 19, it became known that Ukraine is considering transporting food as part of the grain initiative through the territorial waters of Bulgaria and neighboring Romania.

At the same time, the Russian Defense Ministry issued a statement threatening ships heading to Ukraine's Black Sea ports. On the same day, Putin named the conditions for Russia's return to the grain deal and demanded their immediate implementation.

The EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said that the only response to Russia's threats to fire on Ukrainian grain ships could be to increase military aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced that starting July 21, all ships heading to the Black Sea in the direction of Russian seaports and Ukrainian ports in the temporarily occupied territory may be treated by Ukraine as military cargo.

On July 21, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he wanted to discuss the extension of the grain deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and expressed confidence that it will work again.

The same day, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken expressed hope that Turkey will help bring Russia back to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which it disrupted earlier in the week.