Russians plan to attack Kurakhove

The situation in the Donetsk region remains tense as the enemy continues to exert pressure near Avdiivka, Marinka, and Bakhmut. Despite their limited success, they persist in their attempts to achieve a breakthrough in the surrounding areas. While the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports no recent offensive actions by the Russians in the Shakhtarsk (Vuhledar) direction, this remains a priority for the occupiers.

The relative calm observed in the Vuhledar region is a result of the Russians adjusting their attack tactics after their previous assaults ended in failure. The pause in their actions can be attributed to the systematic destruction of Vuhledar. Taking into account the Ukrainian Defense Forces' success in targeting Russian forces from high-rise buildings, the enemy has resorted to demolishing these structures. They have deployed aircraft, artillery, and TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems for this purpose.

According to the latest operational summary from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on May 3, there were no offensive operations conducted by the enemy in the Shakhtarsk direction the previous day. However, Novoukrayinka and Prechistivka in the Donetsk region were subjected to shelling.

Meanwhile, the enemy is assembling a new "shock fist" in the region. Units from the 14th special forces brigade of the Russian Armed Forces have been identified in Pavlivka, with their intended objective being to break through to Kurakhove. The occupiers view the Vuhledar direction as a potential route for a counteroffensive by the Armed Forces in the south of the Donetsk region.

It is noteworthy that the distance between Vuhledar and Volnovakha, a key transportation hub for the occupiers, is approximately 40 kilometers. The railway in this area serves as a crucial means for the occupiers to transport personnel, heavy equipment, and fuel. Thus, one of the primary goals of the potential counteroffensive is to disrupt the supply lines of the occupying army.

“The distance between Vuhledar and Volnovakha, a key transportation hub for the occupiers, is approximately 40 kilometers. The railway in this area serves as a crucial means for the occupiers to transport personnel, heavy equipment, and fuel. Thus, one of the primary goals of the potential counteroffensive is to disrupt the supply lines of the occupying army”

I would like to highlight the observations made by Brady Africa, an employee of the Department of Foreign and Defense Policy Research at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). According to Africa, the occupiers are currently reinforcing specific locations in the temporarily occupied southern regions of Ukraine, anticipating potential counteroffensive actions by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Recent satellite images reveal ongoing fortification activities near Olhynka in the Volnovakha direction of Donetsk region.

It is worth noting that the distance between Vuhledar and Mariupol is approximately 80 kilometers. Gaining hypothetical control over this area could provide the Ukrainian army with the opportunity to isolate the Russian group in Mariupol, divide their garrison, and sever the land corridor to Crimea. This corridor serves as a vital route for Russia to transfer troops and armored vehicles to the front, connecting the Russian Federation with the occupied regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. Securing control over this land corridor would empower the Ukrainian Armed Forces to launch a successful counteroffensive towards the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.

It is important to remember that the situation in the Donetsk region is rapidly evolving. Unfortunately, the occupiers have effectively taken control of the center of Marinka, a long-suffering area. However, the Russians are encountering significant difficulties in Pavlivka along the Vuhledar direction, where some of their positions have moved into the "gray zone."

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About the author. Dmytro Sniehiryov, Espreso columnist

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