Russian pressure on Bakhmut weakens as Ukraine’s Armed Forces carry out counterattacks — ISW

This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). 

Amid reports from the West about possible Russian attempts to launch an offensive in other directions, the pace of Russian operations around Bakhmut is slowing down.

Russian troops carried out marginal offensive actions in the south of Bakhmut, and on March 21 and 22, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out counterattacks on the southwestern and northwestern outskirts of the city.

As reported by the AFU General Staff on March 22, the offensive potential of Russian troops in the Bakhmut area is declining, and Ukrainian officials previously reported fewer combat clashes in the city itself in recent days, the publication says.

US Representative John Kirby said on March 21 that Russian forces may try to launch another offensive, possibly in different directions. According to the assessment of the British MoD, Russian troops may lose pace in the Bakhmut region, because the Russian military leadership is redeploying units to other directions.

Currently, Russian troops are increasing the pace of their offensive operations in the Avdiivka area with the aim of encircling the settlement, and it is possible that this is done at the expense of their operations in Bakhmut and Vuhledar area, which has stalled, ISW notes.

Russian personnel of the 136th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade (58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) previously stated that they were deploying to the Vuhledar area to conduct assaults, but a Russian milblogger claimed on March 21 that elements of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade are operating in the Avdiivka direction.

"This apparent deployment change—if it is not a result of Russian misreporting—possibly indicates that Russian forces prioritized the intensification of operations around Avdiivka over restarting the offensive on Vuhledar," the report says.

The report notes that Russian forces are likely moving more forces to the Avdiivka area, which could allow them to increase the pace of their offensive, although there were no confirmed Russian offensives in the area on March 22.

ISW believes that Russian offensives could prompt the Armed Forces to withdraw from Bakhmut and/or Avdiivka “although neither appears likely at this time.”

ISW has so far not found evidence of the commitment of the Russian 2nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army (Western Military District) despite reports that it had reconstituted in Belarus and deployed to Luhansk.

"The Russians may commit this unit to one or more offensives already underway or to a new offensive undertaking. The commitment of this division’s two or three motorized rifle regiments is unlikely to achieve operationally decisive effects, however, given the failure of larger formations to do so," the report says.  

• Earlier, the Institute for the Study of War predicted that Russia's spring offensive in Donbas is likely approaching its climax.