Russian offensive in Donbas is soon to approach its climax — ISW

This is stated in the ISW report.

"Statements made by Ukrainian military officials on the pace and prospects of current Russian offensive operations may suggest that the overall Russian spring offensive may be nearing culmination," the message reads.

On March 19, Colonel Serhiy Cherevatyi, spokesman for the Eastern Group of Ukrainian Forces, said that Russia was unable to gather sufficient forces for the anticipated major offensive in Donbas and noted that current Russian offensive actions cannot be called a “major strategic operation.” The Institute notes that Russian forces are unable to complete the tactical capture of Bakhmut, which supports the assessment that the Wagner Group's offensive near Bakhmut is likely nearing its climax. In addition, they have problems with the offensive in the area of ​​Avdiivka - Donetsk and Vuhledar.

"This renewed offensive focus on Avdiivka has recently led to major Russian losses around Avdiivka amounting to the equivalent of one company," ISW reminds.

Also, due to the need to strengthen the units under Vuhledar, the Russians are worsening the state of the offensive in the Donetsk region.

"The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade suffered catastrophic manpower and equipment losses during continued failed attacks on Vuhledar in November 2022 and February 2023, and Russian military leadership is likely heavily relying on reserve elements from the 98th Airborne Division to offset and compensate for the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade’s losses," experts say.

Also, some units of the 8th Airborne Division, which is located in the Kreminna area of the Luhansk region, are being moved to the Vuhledar region, which "is likely indicative of a level of desperation on the part of the Russian military command.”

Offensives on Bakhmut, Vuhledar, as well as along the Avdiivka - Donetsk and Svatove - Kreminna lines “have failed to make more than incremental tactical gains in the first few months of 2023.” Therefore, according to analysts, the general Russian spring offensive is probably approaching its climax, and Ukraine has an opportunity to seize the initiative and launch a counteroffensive.

The Institute assumes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted a local counterattack southwest of Bakhmut against the backdrop of intensifying discussions in Russia about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area. And these discussions indicate that Russian sources are increasingly unsure of the ability of the Russian military to retain the initiative around Bakhmut.

Also, the Ukrainian military continues to point out that the massive losses of Russian troops in the Vuhledar area seriously weaken the Russian offensive potential in the Donetsk region.

"The ad hoc reconstitution of existing units for deployment to Vuhledar, as well as the apparent creation of sub-brigade echelon special formations, suggests that Russian combat capabilities in western Donetsk Oblast are greatly degraded," ISW says.

According to experts, "Ukraine is therefore well positioned to regain the initiative and launch counteroffensives in critical sectors of the current frontline."

• Earlier, analysts claimed that the founder of Wagner's PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, seeks to justify his mercenaries' inability to completely surround Bakhmut.

• On Saturday, March 18, the Russian army attacked Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, as a result of which six people were injured, and houses and a shopping center were also damaged. Polish citizens were also injured after shelling Chasiv Yar.