Prigozhin lays groundwork to explain Wagner Group's failure to seize Bakhmut - ISW 

The Institute for the Study of War reported this. 

The experts noted that in an interview with Yevgeny Prigozhin on March 17, he claimed that Ukrainian troops were preparing for a counteroffensive in five separate directions: to the Belgorod region, near Kreminna, near Bakhmut, in the direction of Donetsk, and in the Zaporizhzhia region.

The PMC founder said that Ukrainian forces would begin these operations in mid-April and called on Russian troops to prepare for these counteroffensives by storing ammunition and equipment.

“Prigozhin likely depicted Ukrainian forces as having enough combat power to launch a massive theater-wide counteroffensive to justify the Wagner Group’s inability to complete an envelopment or encirclement of Bakhmut,” the analysts noted. 

According to ISW's preliminary assessment, the Wagner soldiers are likely to conduct opportunistic attacks on easier-to-capture settlements north and northwest of Bakhmut, as their ability to gain tactical advantages in Bakhmut itself is diminishing, and Prigozhin is likely trying to present these actions as flank protection in preparation for Ukrainian counteroffensives.

“Prigozhin’s depiction of imminent Ukrainian counteroffensives also implies that he believes that Russian forces will lose the initiative to Ukraine soon and be forced onto the defensive rather than continuing stalled or unsuccessful offensives in the Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, or Vuhledar areas,” the analysts added. 

• Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ground Forces, said that the situation around Bakhmut in the Donetsk region remains difficult, with Wagner PMC's assault units advancing from several directions, trying to break through the Ukrainian defense.