Russian offensive is slowing down: AFU have opportunity to regain initiative - ISW

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to analysts, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Joint Press Center of the Tavriisk Defense Forces, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, stated on March 15 that Russian ground attacks have decreased from 90 to 100 attacks per day to 20 to 29 per day. The colonel explained that Russian forces have somewhat lost offensive potential due to significant manpower and equipment losses.

"The Russian offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast is likely nearing culmination, if it has not already culminated, although Russia has committed most elements of at least three divisions to the Svatove-Kreminna line," the report says.

The ISW points out that over the past week, Russian forces have made only minimal tactical gains in Luhansk Oblast. At the time, Ukrainian forces have likely recently managed to conduct counterattacks and regain territory in this region.

Experts also emphasize that over the past few days there has been a markedly decreased number of attacks in and around Bakhmut.

"Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has recently emphasized that due to ammunition shortages and heavy fighting, Wagner has had to expand its encirclement of Bakhmut," ISW noted.

Analysts suggest that the Russian occupiers' offensive on Bakhmut is getting closer to its culmination.

"Russian forces are not pursuing active or successful offensive operations elsewhere in theater, and as the pace of operations slows, Ukrainian forces likely have an increased opportunity to regain the initiative," the report added.

• Zelenskyy said following the Ramstein that "Russian aggression is approaching the point where it can break."

• Politico noted that the Armed Forces counteroffensive could begin in May and named two possible scenarios.