Zero-sum war

Since the beginning of the war, Putin's idea of victory has been constantly changing. Initially, he envisioned it as the capture of Kyiv, Zelenskyy's escape, the capitulation of Ukraine and the West to his demands, and a grand new deal that would secure Russia's zone of influence.

After the defeat near Kyiv, his idea of victory changed. Then it became the complete capture of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as promised by the 'special military operation,' and the preservation of the territories already captured. And, of course, a 'grand bargain' for Russia's interests.

After several hundred thousand more Russians killed, and miserable advances of a few kilometers, his perception has changed again. Now it is simply the recognition of its seized territories. And the constant condition is a 'big deal' with the West.

However, from the very beginning of the war, Putin has been taking steps that should make it unquestionable for everyone to recognize his 'victory,' and all of these steps are destroying his most desired goal, a grand bargain. So, he started the war itself with an outright lie that he was not planning any attack. This lie and cynicism, in fact, undermine the possibility of reaching a sustainable agreement with the dictator. The problem of agreements continues with constant statements about the possibility of using nuclear weapons. It is clear that it is impossible to reach an agreement in the face of nuclear blackmail. Finally, Putin's latest foolish move is an alliance with North Korea. In addition to the previous two steps, any agreement with him now means indirectly recognizing his alliance with North Korea.

In fact, by his actions, Putin has made it impossible to reach any peace agreements with him, and has made it impossible to achieve his goals.

In this situation, unfortunately for us, we need to understand that there will be no peace through an agreement with him. The grain deal is a perfect example. The attempt to reach an agreement in fact did not lead to anything, because the time when the agreement came into effect was the time when our victory at sea began. But in fact, the agreement was terminated by Putin, and the only reason we are transporting grain by sea is because we defeated Putin's fleet.

My analysis confirms that the only possible scenario for a hot peace today is a freeze, which will occur due to the exhaustion of the parties' forces, in fact, something close to the Korean scenario. This can also be a peace that is quite sustainable, but its only guarantee is a powerful Armed Forces.

Does this mean that peace initiatives on our part are useless? No, it doesn't. We are fighting for international support against Putin. And these initiatives allow us to block Russia's narrative that the only option for peace is to negotiate on their terms.

All other real endings to the war and peace will only be possible after Putin's death or resignation from power. This is bad news for both us and him. But in his case, it is the result of his strategic miscalculations and a zero-sum war in which he cannot win and cannot afford to lose.

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About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist.

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