Espreso. Global

Such 'guarantees' only promise inevitable onset of new war

16 January, 2024 Tuesday

Real guarantees transcend mere declarations, consultations, sanctions, or even assistance with weapons and funding

After the widely publicized failure of the Ukrainian offensive and a decrease in Western military and financial aid, Russia, like a predator that has tasted blood, intensified pressure on all fronts.

The Ukrainian army shifted to a defensive stance, relying on limited ammunition stocks. Plans involve addressing the shortage of military equipment and compensating for human losses through a new wave of mass mobilization.

The Ukrainian air defense grapples with a shortage of anti-aircraft missiles and encounters new challenges like jet drones. Mobile groups armed with large-caliber machine guns and anti-aircraft guns are proving ineffective against them.

The Ukrainian economy faces raids, a dearth of qualified personnel, and, most notably, the foolishness and greed of officials who seem oblivious to a favorable outcome, stuffing their pockets with crumbs from the gross domestic product.

Ukrainian society, swayed by cheer-patriotic propaganda and unprepared for a prolonged, exhausting struggle, begins to resent, disregarding belated calls for patriotism and self-sacrifice.

The Ukrainian authorities exhibit complete confusion and an inability to address elementary crisis issues, akin to an old playboy who suddenly turns out to be a poor, sick impotent.

Expectations of the rapid appearance of miraculous F-16s, long-range ATACMS, and billions of dollars showered on the Ukrainian defense-industrial complex are no longer in the media agenda as before.

The Ukrainian defense industry, still in disarray, is tossed arbitrarily by 'big state managers' who believe the invisible hand of the market will yield hundreds of tanks and millions of drones in wartime conditions.

But reality doesn't work like this; tanks, rockets, and drones fail to materialize. But journalistic investigations into top corruptors proliferate like mushrooms after the rain.

The sole notable event with a 'plus' sign is Zelenskyy's appointment of a group of negotiators for security guarantees for Ukraine.

In this group, mostly lacking professional diplomats but featuring “deputy deputies” from the Office of the President and the heads of Ukrainian special services, there's an attempt to create another media narrative. The goal is to provide a lifeline for the Ukrainian state amidst the challenges caused by short-sighted populist decisions from high-ranking leaders.

However, these so-called "security guarantees" are nothing more than illusions amid Russia's extensive war against Ukraine.

This narrative is a fictional and stretched-out tale where the term "guarantees" is entirely out of place.

The suggested mechanisms for offering comprehensive assistance to Ukraine "in case of aggression" (as if there isn't aggression already) involve the routine signing of agreements with countries already assisting or willing to help in the future.

The lack of significance in these "guarantees" highlights the low status of the Ukrainian negotiating team, which doesn't even include the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Essentially, it's a technical team seeking immediate aid for Ukraine, nothing more.

Real guarantees aren't about declarations, consultations, or even providing support with weapons and money. True guarantees, like the United States' commitment to defend Taiwan, Europe, South Korea, and fully support Israel, are documented in treaties.

Guarantees specifically involve the armed involvement of declaring states in repelling aggression against a country under these assurances. Such guarantees are not outlined in the case of Ukraine.

In the shattered European security system, the only place where these "guarantees" might apply is in the fragile post-war world, should Kyiv be compelled to negotiate with Moscow and sacrifice part of its territories.

However, these so-called "guarantees" would be a bittersweet pill, equally useless for Ukraine and non-threatening to Russia. Nothing more. It's not akin to joining NATO or receiving direct military assistance from the USA and its allies. Instead, it's more like an empty declaration, reminiscent of the ineffective "Budapest Memorandum" or the hollow "security guarantees" of 1938 for Czechoslovakia, after the Sudetenland was given to the Nazis.

Such "guarantees" can only promise the inevitable start of a new war.


About the author. Yuriy Kasyanov, volunteer, soldier of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, activist of the Army SOS initiative, head of the A.Drones initiative.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors. 

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