Mobilisation, demobilisation and reservation: three problems of current war

The controversial draft law on strengthening mobilisation, which has been adopted as a whole, has already been labelled impotent. Another conclusion is that with this law, the current government is turning the army and society against itself. In general, the law is criticised for turning it into an analogue of a football — passing from one player to another. The only difference is that each player wants someone else to score the decisive goal. That is, someone else takes responsibility for the process and the consequences.

But the adoption of this law is a hit at the bar or even past the gate. It does not actually solve anything for the country at war. And the current government is only to blame for being unprofessional and irresponsible. Like it or not, it was elected by adult citizens in 2019, in the sixth year of Russia's war with us.

There are a lot of objective factors that the President's Office will not be able to solve even if it came to its senses and really wanted to, throwing all available resources at it.

Let's start with the mobilisation itself. During a speech in the Ukrainian parliament before the vote on the draft law on mobilisation, the commander of the Khortytsia operational and strategic grouping, Lieutenant General Yuriy Sodol, said that Russian troops outnumbered Ukrainian troops seven to ten times. And the American media Business Insider, citing the words of Supreme Allied Commander Europe Christopher Cavoli, writes that the Russian army is now 15 percent larger than at the time of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.  This was due to the increase in Russia's conscription age from 27 to 30 years. This increase will allow Russia to expand the number of available military recruits by 2 million in the coming years.

In Ukraine, the mobilisation age has also been changed — men are now subject to mobilisation from the age of 25, rather than 27, as before. In addition, compulsory military training at the place of study or work is introduced for 18 to 24 years old. Again, this is for men, although women, regardless of age, are not prohibited from studying military affairs on a voluntary basis, and there are no obstacles to voluntary mobilisation. But where Russia has a mobilisation resource, Ukraine has people.

Even if we arm 100% of fit Ukrainians of both sexes aged 18 to 60, Russia, as a totalitarian state, can send at least twice as many hordes against us with a slight movement of Putin's hand without much resistance from its citizens.

Of course, we can say for a long time and confidently that the enemy does not have the resources to arm, clothe, feed, and at least teach recruits. Not to mention technical support. But there is another fact: Russia has recovered from the defeats of 2022, has drawn conclusions, and our front and rear are bearing the consequences. Please note that the popular references to David and Goliath have suddenly disappeared from the information space. Where the little David is Ukraine, and the big Goliath is Russia, which he defeated. Even the most motivated Ukrainians have a clear understanding that we cannot throw the corpses at Russian positions, even if it is our last and decisive battle.

This understanding was not even close in February and March 2022. Queues outside military registration and enlistment offices, volunteers with hunting weapons, desperate partisans in the occupied Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions - all these people, to be sure, hoped to kick Russia in the teeth, snap back, and thereby force the enemy to crawl back at least to the positions the occupier held before the large-scale invasion. These are not my assumptions. In their impulse, the citizens truly believed that it is good to fight together, and therefore, together we will win. As of now, it is clear that at the beginning of the invasion, they all took a one-way ticket. A contract signed for three years means nothing. Because increased mobilisation is not the beginning of demobilisation.

"Now they are the best soldiers, most of them started as highly motivated volunteers, and now they are professional soldiers with unique military experience. But they were the best even before the war - they are responsible citizens. Without them, Ukraine will not be strong, free, rich and Ukrainian after the war. That is why the state should not treat them as a resource that can be easily collected and used until it runs out. We have to protect these people by preparing their replacements. The state can and should replace them as soldiers by mobilising and training the next defenders. This is its main function in times of war," writes historian and politician Volodymyr Viatrovych on his Facebook page. It seems that additional comments are unnecessary here. However, there are some.

"Let's not forget that during those 36 months, no one said that demobilisation would take place now. Demobilisation is, in principle, a process that signals a transition to peacetime. At the moment, Russian aggression continues, escalation continues, and the possibility of further escalation cannot be ruled out," said the newly appointed spokesman for the Ministry of Defence, Dmytro Lazutkin. This is not his personal opinion, but rather the unexplained position of both the ministry and the government in general. It is deciphered as follows.

People with combat experience are now in first lines, in the trenches. Not everyone had it in 2022. But as of now, everyone who is still alive has acquired it.

There are only two ways to leave the positions - to die or to be seriously injured. Don't take this as cynicism, it's a reality that has been freed from its shell.

There is talk of a third way — to leave the unit without permission, but they immediately fall silent. So, it is impossible to demobilise experienced soldiers and replace them with equivalent ones in one click. It is also impossible to do it in two clicks. At the same time, not everyone who has been wearing a uniform since 2022 is fighting. Replacing staff and rear-guard personnel with experienced people with combat experience is a kind of solution. As of now, there is no acceptable solution to the issue of rotation and fair demobilisation — well, except for Putin's sudden death.

Just as there is no solution to the third issue of the time: the reservation from mobilisation, and in fact, the legal exemption from participation in hostilities and military service in general.

The inclusion of travelling circuses in the list of critical enterprises - their employees automatically have reservations - has turned into a bad joke. But in addition to circuses and the Single Marathon, the reservation includes artists from the Viryovka Choir, employees of the Eva, Epicentr, and Silpo chains, Nova Poshta and PrivatBank branches, and the list goes on.

Of course, among the artists and businessmen there are not only many volunteers and heroes honoured for their lives, but also, unfortunately, many who have fallen. So there is no point in accusing everyone of deliberate evasion. However, the very fact of reservations is already considered to be a largely unfair and partly corrupt element by both those who have received and will receive a military call-up and those who have long earned the right to demobilise.

But, as mentioned above, abandoning the practice of reservations will not bring victory closer globally. At least because the enemy is many times bigger. And the enemy is led by an ardent tyrant for whom there are no rules or restrictions. He doesn't count for anything and can easily mobilise the resources of his own kind — Iran, North Korea, and partly China — to support him.

There is no room for discussion in Russia's world. Even if in the long run it is a weakness, here and now it is a strength. It can and should be countered only by the ability to negotiate properly, to motivate properly, and by the desire to preserve people as much as possible and not to turn Ukraine into a bad copy of Russia. Only under these conditions, plus responsibility, can and should we solve all three current problems.

Specially for Espreso

About the author: Andriy Kokotyukha, writer, screenwriter.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.