84% of those who can be drafted in Russia are against mobilization - analyst

This was reported by Alexander Shulga, Doctor of Sociology, Head of ICAR (Institute of Conflict Studies and Analysis of Russia), on the Espreso TV channel.

"We studied the attitudes of Russian society and could separately look at the attitudes of potential draftees, i.e. Russian men aged 18 to 30, who, according to the updated legislation, can be mobilized and sent to the front during conscription. Later, they will be forced to sign a contract on a voluntary basis, because during partial mobilization they will sign it anyway.

So, the moods of the entire Russian society in general, and of this particular cohort in particular, are very clear. They tend to increase the rejection of the second possible wave of mobilization, which is where Russia is heading. Indeed, in early 2023, 60% of Russians were against a possible second wave of mobilization. Among men aged 18 to 30, 71% of Russians were against the second wave of mobilization. By the beginning of 2024, 74% of the total population of the Russian Federation and 84% of potential draftees were against it. That is, 84% of these Russians are now against mass mobilisation," Shulga said.

According to him, the Kremlin will still have to resort to forced mass mobilization one way or another.

"Today, the Kremlin is forced to balance between the so-called 'three big pillars'. This is the economy, the ability to maintain living standards, and the need to support a very intense war. Thirdly, it is social and political stability, balance in society. It is clear that under such conditions they cannot maintain this balance, so they have to make sacrifices. At the moment, Russians are trying to balance with economic incentives. We are talking about a huge number of additional payments when signing a contract. But this balance cannot be maintained permanently, because the war is very intense, and Russian occupiers suffer heavy losses. The war is stretched in time for an unclear period," Shulga added.

• As a reminder, cases of desertion are increasing in the armed formations of the southern military district of the occupying Russian army - in total, more than 18,000 soldiers have left the service without permission.