Russia still manufactures missiles, but reserves are depleting. Serhiy Zgurets column

Russia’s high-precision missile arcenal

Yesterday, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksii Reznikov, published updated and more detailed information on Russia’s stockpiles of long-range missiles. This is quite relevant as the question on how long the enemy can carry out active mass terrorist attacks against our critical infrastructure are circulating. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine detailed the number, stockpiles and production rates of missiles for the Iskander, Kalibr, X-101, X-555 and other types of Russia’s long-range missile weapons.

The numbers concern the period from February 22 to November 18, 2022. According to this information, Russia has 282 units of X-101 and X-555 air-launched cruise missiles, which the enemy uses to attack the critical infrastructure of our country. Previously, the stockpile was estimated at 213 missiles without taking into consideration production rates.

Regarding the pace of production, Ukraine’s MoD provides interesting information, which states that during this period of time, Russia managed to produce another 120 units of cruise missiles or 15 missiles per month. This can be explained by the fact that the production takes place in 3 shifts, given the accumulation of stocks of components for the manufacture of these missile weapons. Stocks of Kalibr sea-based missiles amount to 229 units, and production is maintained at the same level. As for the most dangerous Kinzhal missiles, according to the MoD of Ukraine, the enemy had launched 16 Kinzhal missiles between February 24 and today, but restored its stocks. Now the enemy has 43 such missiles in stock.

Conclusion: the aggressor still retains the ability to manufacture missiles through accumulated components, but in the future these reserves will be depleted.

The Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, has said that Russia has missiles in stock for a maximum of 3-4 powerful attacks, such as those it has launched in November. Ukraine should bet on obtaining foreign air defense systems and anti-missile defense. Although, even with the equipment we have now, our air defense system demonstrates extremely efficient results. Recalling the attack on November 15, when 96 air- and sea-based cruise missiles were launched on the territory of Ukraine, 75 of these missiles were shot down. Our air defense showed great efficiency. 

We have to look for different defense options and opportunities to encourage the US and the West to increase their help to Ukraine in this direction.

Could NATO cover part of Ukraine's airspace?

According to Mykhailo Samus, a military expert and an expert of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, a political question arises: is NATO ready to provide or expand the capabilities of a technical system, that is, a computer system, as well as radars and air defense systems for the defense of Ukrainian airspace. This political issue is the main one. For example, can the Patriot system, located on the territory of Poland, shoot down a missile that is aimed at an object in the Lviv region. Technically, it is possible, but politically there are doubts. This could become a reason for a direct clash between NATO countries and Russia, which causes great concern for the NATO Secretary General, who constantly repeats that NATO does not want to get involved in a direct conflict with Russia. Although, to be honest, I do not understand such a political position on the part of NATO.

The situation around the Zaporizhzhia NPP

Mykhailo Samus noted that finally the Western community and Western oligarchs involved in the nuclear business did pressure the Russian side and warned Russia against the further continuation of its aggressive policy at the ZNPP. Putin has already been told directly that there will be no other choice but to impose sanctions on Rosatom and then he will also lose nuclear energy, from the point of view of foreign exchange income. And currency flow is a very sensitive topic for the Putin regime, because it will soon decrease. Also, the price cap on Russian oil will also be implemented tomorrow. I do not understand why the West has been trying to say, prove and hint at this for so long. It was possible to state this on the first day of the occupation of Zaporizhzhia NPP or Chornobyl NPP, although Rosatom was not so actively involved there. But regarding the Zaporizhzhia NPP, there was a Putin’s decree that he instructed Rosatom to take control of the plant. And there is all the evidence that a company that does business with the West is participating in the occupation of Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian nuclear power facilities. Any lawyer can prove this crime. Finally, our Western partners have dared to hint to Putin that he has to stop this absurd act, because it may turn into big problems for Rosatom and for Russia.

Prospects on the fronts

It seems that Russia has 2-3 ways of conducting hostilities: missile terror, nuclear blackmail, and saturating the front line with its cannon fodder.

Mykhailo Samus noted that the Armed Forces have a strategic initiative. Now the Ukrainian army is preparing to conduct several offensive operations. We know that it includes the Melitopol direction, and the offensives of our forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, as well as the Svatove direction in the Luhansk region. And the Russian army has nothing to offer even after the partial mobilization. As far as I understand, Putin will either conduct the next wave of partial mobilization or declare martial law and general mobilization, because he clearly does not have the resources even to create a strike group on the territory of Belarus. And this suggests that Putin now has 2 options, either to destroy the energy system of Ukraine and somehow force us to negotiate, or to go for the mobilization of several million people, take out the remains of the equipment and try to create groups in Belarus, and also fill the front lines with soldiers in order to somehow turn the situation around.

Mykhailo Samus believes that there will be no winter halts on the Ukrainian side. And Russia will act asymmetrically, striking civilian objects. At the same time, if full mobilization is announced, it will take at least two months. Concerning time, the Ukrainian army will try to achieve as many of its goals as possible until February. And for Putin, February will be the moment when he is ready to continue hostilities due to the mobilization. But if the Ukrainian army will have achieved its goals by then, Russia’s mobilization will not matter, because they will no longer have a territory for conducting operations. Accordingly, Russian troops will lose all the positions they currently hold on the occupied territory of Ukraine.