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Russia steps up mobilization ahead of possible summer offensive: ISW names problems that Russia may face

19 April, 2024 Friday
11:15

Russia is stepping up mobilization ahead of a possible offensive in the summer of 2024. However, the heavy losses they have incurred will pose challenges in swiftly replenishing their reserves

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This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War.

It noted that the Kremlin is concerned about the decline in mobilization and likely plans to make economic incentives the basis of crypto-mobilization efforts in the spring and summer of 2024.

On April 3, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that over 100,000 Russians have signed contracts for military service since the beginning of 2024, but that the strengthening of Russian mobilization efforts is unlikely to lead to an additional 200,000 military personnel.

"The Russian military has been generating forces at rates equal to its losses in Ukraine in recent months, and intensified monthly recruitment rates are unlikely to generate a considerable surplus of manpower for Russian operational- and strategic-level reserves," the analysts said.

According to ISW, Russian troops are unlikely to build up large reserves ahead of an expected offensive in the summer of 2024. The limited time left for Russia to prepare for the expected summer offensive is likely to mean that the additional personnel added in the coming months will be poorly trained and less capable.

"ISW continues to assess that planned Russian operational- and strategic-level reserves are unlikely to be ready to act as a first-echelon penetration force or as a second-echelon exploitation force capable of conducting large-scale assaults in 2024 if Ukrainian forces have the wherewithal to resist them," the analysts added.

  • Recently, analysts have suggested that the Russian military could launch a large-scale offensive in the western part of the Donetsk region in late spring
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