Putin appoints Gerasimov to weaken influence of Prigozhin and security forces - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shared the information in its report on Russia’s offensive campaign in Ukraine.

The appointment of Valery Gerasimov as the commander of the occupation forces in Ukraine is probably partly a political decision. Thus, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to weaken the power of the security forces, who favored Sergei Surovikin.

Analysts claim that the security forces, most represented by the owner of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, had special views on the methods of warfare in Ukraine.

"Prigozhin has increasingly criticized the Russian MoD’s conduct of the war since late 2022. Igor Girkin, former commander of Russian militants in Donbas and a prominent milblogger, heavily implied that he would support the removal of Russian President Vladimir Putin from office in his most direct criticism of Putin to date on January 10," ISW wrote.

Analysts add that Surovikin was a favorite of Prigozhin's audience and a rival of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

"Gerasimov’s elevation is likely in part a political move to weaken the influence of the broadly anti-MoD siloviki faction and a signal for Prigozhin and other actors to reduce their criticism of the MoD," the analysts claim.

At the same time, ISW believes that such a step may encourage the security forces faction to further divide the Russian information space.

The ISW analysis also says that the Russian offensive this year will be hampered by the shortage of ammunition and problems with supplying the army.