Prospects for Ukrainian victory
Ukraine should not devalue Russia as an opponent. Russian mobilization, referendums and nuclear threats are all parts of the same plan. Putin's idea is to annex the occupied territories to Russia at this stage of the war
It will not be easy for Ukraine to free them without Western help and under the nuclear blackmail of the world.
Scholz has already stated that Germany is not sending tanks to Ukraine due to fears of an escalation of the conflict between Russia and NATO.
Ukrainians may be pushed to freeze the conflict after the conclusion of an agreement between Russia and the West.
In this case, the conflict will start again after a certain time, because the Russian aggressor is not ready to stop. They want to scare and trick the world into regrouping.
Ukraine can hope for protests in Russia or another "black swan" for Putin. We hope that it will happen, but it is naive to hope only in God.
Ukraine can rely on itself. And hopes will come true if:
Ukrainian government will begin to be guided not by an orientation towards the growth or fall of its own ratings, but by the calculation for a strategic victory;
after each successful counteroffensive, the authorities will stop planning another election;
the government and the opposition will spend time not on self-condemnation and self-publicity, but on nationwide consultations on reforming the country, attracting Western weapons and funds for reconstruction;
democratic institutions will work, the courts will be quickly reformed, the authorities will stop political censorship and restrictions on freedom of speech;
the military will be convinced of the logic of making political decisions, the goal of which should be strategic victory and the preservation of people's lives;
political jealousy towards the military should become a "taboo";
the effectiveness of foreign policy should be determined by the level of military and financial support;
accession to the EU cannot be imitated, losing a historic chance. As, for example, with the Law on Media, when some deputies deliberately included in the European integration law anti-Ukrainian, censorship and state propaganda clauses, which have already caused misunderstanding in the EU. This is also done with the votes of until recently pro-Russian deputies from the banned "Opposition platform - for Life", whom the authorities took as allies.
The Russian enemy will not advance further if the Ukrainian language, church, values, heroes, and culture prevail in our territories.
Ukraine will be able to win only by demonstrating to the world its own separateness from the "Russian world", cultural uniqueness in combination with high-quality European democracy.
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