Prigozhin confirms Biden's statement on the true extent of Russia's combat losses in Ukraine

In particular, for the first time, he gave specific information about the losses during the operations in Bakhmut: 10,000 former convicts and 10,000 Wagner volunteer mercenaries. 

20,000 dead in Wagner, plus the losses of Russian troops near Bakhmut in May-August 2022, before Wagner entered Bakhmut, plus the wounded, and Russian sources say the ratio of wounded and contused to dead is 1:4 or 1:5, giving exactly the same figure as the Americans. 

Secret documents of the US Department of Defense, which were recently leaked to the press, stated that as of March 1, 2023, Russia's total losses in the war were estimated at 35,000 to 43,500 killed. 

On May 1, Kirby, a representative of the US National Security and Defense Council, said that Russia had lost 20,000 people in 5 months - from December 2022 to April 2023. That is, after the mobilization was launched, the average monthly losses amounted to 4,000 killed Russian soldiers. 

Interestingly, this generally coincides with open data in the Ukrainian media, and the American assessment of the situation is based on information that is directly or indirectly confirmed by Russian sources.

Two teams of researchers, the BBC and Mediazona, as well as Horyushko Telegram channel, are monitoring messages published in the news and social media, mostly obituaries and grave markers. According to the list of names on Horyushko Telegram channel, as of May 28, 23,859 public messages about the dead Russians were identified. The BBC and Mediazona do not show the list by name, but their information generally coincides with Horyushko's. As of May 26, they identified 24,005 dead Russian military. Among them, 5,703 were Wagner mercenaries who died near Bakhmut between August 1, 2022, and May 22, 2023. It should be noted that the monitoring does not track data on the losses of mobilized soldiers in Donbas, as such information is blocked; according to the statement of the "DPR Ombudsman", in December 2022, the losses of soldiers mobilized to the Russian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region amounted to 4,200.

That is, according to the minimal and incomplete data confirmed by Russia itself, the Russian army has already lost:

• Losses of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Rosgvardia (the National Guard), FSB, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs - 18,302 (5,703 Wagner losses were subtracted).

• Wagner losses are 20,000.

• Losses of mobilized in the Donetsk region as of December 2022 - 4,200.

In total: 42,500 killed as of May 2023. These figures exceed the losses of the USSR and Russia in Afghanistan, Ichkeria, and all other post-Soviet hotspots combined.

But these figures are obviously not complete.

What is the structure of losses in Russia?

1. The Ministry of Defense, the National Guard, the FSB, i.e. the official security forces. To the extent that it is possible to compare the losses of Russian troops with data from social networks, the available figures are at least 20% lower than the real ones due to the large number of missing persons, especially during the maneuvering period of the war, as well as in improvised military formations: BARS (Combat Army Reserve of the Country), national volunteer battalions, soldiers on 3-6 month contracts, and convicts from the Russian Ministry of Defense's Storm units.

2. Private military companies and mercenary units - the largest is Wagner, and other private military structures have been created, for example, by Gazprom. They have their own accounting of losses. These losses are also not fully known, Prigozhin spoke about losses near Bakhmut, although Wagner has been fighting since March 18, 2023 near Popasna.

3. Mobilized in the occupied territory of Ukraine. These "iron helmets" are in the worst situation - they are thrown into battle without training, without supplies, with outdated weapons, and their losses are not accounted for. Information about the problems of these troops and about the dead is completely blocked, as the occupation authorities keep the Internet under strict control. The occupiers in the "DPR" reported that their confirmed losses amounted to 4,200 killed as of December 2022, but then they stopped announcing even these figures. The occupiers of the "LPR" have never given such data at all. The BBC estimates the losses of those mobilized into the Russian army in Donbas at 8,000 killed. This figure coincides with the extrapolation of data on average daily losses according to official reports of the "DPR", which, according to the "DPR", amounted to an average of 14 killed per day of Donetsk mobilized persons. However, this does not take into account the missing, who were not included in the statistics, and the mobilized were fighting everywhere, they were deployed to cover the escape of Russian cadre units, so the losses should be higher.

Based on the minimum figures, even a cautious conservative estimate of Russian losses at this point amounts to:

• Losses of official security forces are unknown by 20%. That is, the 18,000 (not counting Wagner) on the BBC researchers' list of names give an estimate of losses of up to 22,000.

• Losses of mercenaries in private structures are currently estimated at 20,000.

• The losses of those mobilized in Donbas are estimated at 8,000, according to the BBC.

Thus, the minimum estimated figures for Russian losses are about 50,000 killed. Obviously, the number of wounded and contused is 4 to 5 times higher.

Thus, the statement of British Defense Secretary Wallace about Russia's total losses of 220,000 killed and wounded servicemen is minimally confirmed by open sources.

Please note that neither the United States nor the United Kingdom refute Ukraine's official data on Russian losses, but suggest that the enemy could have suffered greater losses, and for the same reasons, I do not consider it necessary to question Ukrainian official data, but rather present my own vision based on open sources.

Source

About the author: Yuriy Butusov, journalist, soldier of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The editorial staff do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.