Espreso. Global

Putin starts preparing for great war

10 January, 2024 Wednesday

It sounds weird, but Putin wants a ceasefire more than anyone else

There are several reasons for this:

  1. He already realizes that he will not get more territory than he controls currently in Ukraine by military means.
  2. Continuing the military campaign increases casualties and depletes the stocks of equipment needed for the next step.
  3. He needs time to accumulate resources (production of new equipment) to destroy the NATO system and the entire Western world... to achieve the main goal of his life - world leadership.

The latter sounds strange, but it is quite realistic.

Intelligence officials have reported several times this fall that Russia is developing plans to attack NATO countries. It would seem that where is Russia, exhausted by the war in Ukraine, and where is the strong large army of the NATO bloc?

But all is amiss.

  1. The restriction of military aid to Ukraine has shown that stocks of military equipment in NATO warehouses are very limited.
  2. Many military manufacturing companies in Europe have been either without orders for a long time or have closed down. The West is losing out to Russia in terms of its ability to produce various types of weapons.
  3. Europe has significant limitations in the production of almost all types of weapons. Armored vehicles, explosives, and especially shells.
  4. Russia already produces hundreds of times more drones (the main means of fighting in modern warfare) than Europe does.
  5. The number of troops in European NATO countries (excluding Turkey and the United States) is about 1.3 million. Putin has already increased the size of his army to 1.3 million people (but he has a much greater mobilization potential than European countries).
  6. Russia's defense industry can produce 2 million shells and 200 tanks a year. All of Europe together could not produce 1 million shells for Ukraine. Its annual capacity is only 600 thousand shells. In addition, North Korea has easily supplied Russia with 1 million shells, and it is unknown how many more it will supply (as well as China).
  7. The Russian army has undergone combat training, has a well-developed system of army and battle management, while NATO countries have experience only in exercises that are far different in scale from the fighting in Ukraine.

The combination of all these factors showed the dwarf (Putin -ed.) his fatal mistake. The war should have been started with one of the NATO countries, which would not have had time to invoke Article 5 before the war was over (as far as I know, such plans were made in 2019).

Now Putin is starting to prepare for a great war

1. Russia's support for conflicts like the one in Israel on October 7 has proven to be effective.

  • The West has limited resources. Israel received part of the military equipment that was being prepared for Ukraine.
  • In 2024, there will be several such conflicts.
  • In 2025, their number may exceed 10.
  • The Western world will not be able to effectively help its allies and replenish its stocks.

2. Putin needs a break in the war with Ukraine as an investment of time to rapidly build up his army for the upcoming blitzkrieg.

3. The intensification of attacks on Ukraine and continuous offensive activity fulfills two objectives:

  • depletion of Ukraine's and the West's military potential;
  • Raising the stakes in future ceasefire negotiations (as politicians in the United States and Europe are currently discussing).

4. Most likely, the issue of negotiations will be raised in April 2024, immediately after Putin's democratic elections (by the way, the Chinese confirm this period to me)

5. Ukraine will receive security guarantees (with high probability) and funding to rebuild the destroyed infrastructure.

6. Next, Russia will play on the discontent of Ukrainian society. After all, we have created expectations of victory, but not of freezing. Therefore, the scenario that the dwarf will be preparing in Ukraine is mass protests and a possible forceful overthrow of the government (no matter by whom). The very fact of growing chaos will be the necessary result.

7. Why does he need chaos in Ukraine? In the event of a great war between Russia and Europe, or the United States and China, Ukraine's role as an ally of the West and a supplier of simple post-Soviet military equipment is important. Chaos multiplies by zero these plans of Ukraine's partners (and they do exist). Plus, a country in chaos does not need to be invaded; it will fall apart on its own.

8. Now about the timing of an attack on NATO countries

According to various estimates, China is preparing for a great war with the United States over Taiwan starting in 2027 (when it finishes rearming its army, it will not be ready earlier).

Russia may be preparing for an attack on the same dates, but... the coming year will have a better window of opportunity.

From November 2024 to the end of January 2025, after the US presidential election and before the new president takes office, the dwarf believes that the United States will not be able to significantly influence NATO's activities. And without the United States, the collective security system will collapse in a matter of days.

So starting from May 2024 until January, Russia will have 8 months of active training, in which North Korea and China will take part.

9. Ukraine will have just reached its election cycle (the end of 2024), a series of protests and social conflicts will take place. And it will not have a major impact on future events in Europe.

Poland is the only country preparing for the above.

It alone has signed defense contracts worth more than $40 billion, is buying hundreds of modern Abrams, Korean tanks, howitzers, MLRS, air defense, UAVs, dozens of Korean FA50 fighters and American ones.

What should Ukraine do now?

  • Ukraine needs to work with future scenarios and have an anti-crisis "plan B" (in case of the scenario partially described above).
  • Ukraine needs to have an effective wartime economic strategy (maximum efficiency and speed in the military-industrial complex, increased production of its own weapons, and a minimum of the state in the economy with liberalization of taxes and regulation, and a 70% reduction in officials).
  • Reboot the state apparatus - focus on effective project managers (cause Ukraine's officials, with rare exceptions, are only procedural).
  • Have its own strategy and plan for partnership with global players who will believe that Ukraine is not only contractually obliged but also responsible for its words (and this will be followed by big finances).


About the author. Anatoliy Amelin, co-founder and director of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future economic programs

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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