In 2024, Ukraine may lose more territories than in 2023

1. If 2023 was a year of hope for society, then 2024 will be a year of disappointment.

2. The Russian Federation feels our economic weakness, disorganization, disintegration, and that is why it will use this year to break us.

3. Although Ukraine's military-industrial complex will develop, it will do so at a very slow pace and not enough to meet the needs of the army

4. As before, the government will see the mobilization of people as the main solution to all problems, but at the same time it will hope that the West will help Ukraine.

5. In the current situation, Ukraine needs an economic leader, but unfortunately, there are no prerequisites for his emergence. And there is no public demand for such a leader.

6. That is why Ukraine will continue to depend on the flow of Western aid. And the situation on the battlefield will depend on the timeliness and sufficiency of this assistance.

7. It is likely that in 2024 Ukraine will lose more territory than in 2023. The scale of the losses will depend on the support of the allies.

8. Ukraine is now in a position where we cannot dictate the terms of peace. On the contrary, the Russian Federation now feels that it can dictate the terms from a position of strength, and this is unacceptable to us.

9. If there is a sufficient level of assistance, we can expect a "freeze" at best. Without aid, Ukraine's prospects are much bleaker.

10. Trump is a dark horse who can either save or destroy Ukraine.

I must say right away that this is not a forecast, but only my thoughts, which I have just made public.

Source.

About the author: Pavlo Vernivskyi, economist, expert at the Oleksandr Pol Institute

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.