Espreso. Global
OPINION

Four factors of Ukraine's victory

8 May, 2024 Wednesday
13:17

Today we will talk about a winning scenario

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Any winning scenario must include the following components, and all of them, not just one:

1. High morale. Anyone who has practiced martial arts knows that defeat begins in the mind.

As soon as a fighter starts to think that he is going to lose, he will lose. There is a drop in motivation, a drop in physical strength, and fear reigns. This is exactly what is happening to Ukrainians now.

Is it possible to raise morale? Yes, it is. To do this, we need to fundamentally change the information policy.

2. Mobilization of additional 200 thousand military. This is my estimate, and I think it is enough to stop the orcs for a year or two. Mobilization for defense, not for new major offensives on Ukraine's part.

3. Stable Western assistance. Finally getting all the weapons Ukraine needs without delays and political games.

4. Sanctions, really effective sanctions. Every day, a lot of information emerges about how Putin circumvents sanctions. It's high time to impose secondary sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies operating in the West for getting an uncompetitive advantage in the form of sanctioned Russian oil.

If there are these four components, the winning scenario will look like this. We repel new major offensives, inflicting enormous losses on the Russian army. After that, Ukraine does not launch a major counteroffensive, but continues to knock out the orcs on the front line, without major frontline breakthroughs. The goal: to continue inflicting losses even if they stop attacking, but not to suffer losses ourselves. At the same time, lower the real Iron Curtain together with the West. Putin's isolation must become total. If Putin wants to make North Korea, fine, but then let them live like North Korea.

Under these circumstances, in 2-3 years, Russia will collapse, as the overstrain of military operations and enormous sanctions will destroy the economy. Putin is old and has no successor, and these will be additional factors in Russia's internal transformations. I do not believe that he will find a successor, as the entire system he has built depends on him alone.

Russia is falling into an internal crisis that cannot be overcome without external assistance from the West. Peace talks begin, in which they withdraw from Ukraine, condemn Putin's crimes, and pay reparations. In return, sanctions are lifted and they are allowed back to the international table.

All other scenarios, unfortunately, are even more fantastic.

Source.

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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