Russian S-400 air defense systems compromised after classified data leak

This scandal has revealed many more sensitive points. Ukrainian military expert Oleksand Kovalenko has analyzed the leak and the performance of the Russian military's top air-defense system in Ukraine, which has shown its vulnerability to even some older Western missiles.

Security system collapse

It was hard to imagine such a turnaround in the "deal of the century" that even the U.S. opposed. Virtually all classified information about the most advanced air defence systems in India's inventory has become available, especially to India's traditional antagonists Pakistan and China. And even if the codes can be changed, and officers can be replaced and retrained according to the new methodology, the components of the complexes - no, as well as the frequency of supply of spare parts for maintenance and repair.

It is worth noting that this is not the first scandal that has arisen with the appearance in the public domain of information about Russia's activities that under no circumstances should have been published. But the security system - both on the domestic level and on international contacts - continues to fail time after time.

In Soviet times it was dangerous to deal with the USSR, to buy arms and equipment from it, because the Soviets always sought to retain some control over this equipment. For example, tanks were equipped with trackers that would help determine their location, and air defence systems could lose control of the operator through remote exposure.

It is no secret that Russia tried to keep this tradition alive - and it was more difficult to do so than the USSR. But the danger of co-operation with Russia was not only that it would be able to maintain relative control over its arms exports, but that it would not be able to keep secrets about those exports and the products themselves.

Again - there is an absolute collapse of the security system. But that's not all.

Supply disruption

In early July, during the meeting between Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin, the Indian Prime Minister asked the Russian dictator to influence the acceleration of S-400 SAM deliveries. The fact is that India has not yet received all the air defence systems - Russia is disrupting the delivery deadlines.

In 2018, India ordered 11 divisions of S-400 SAM systems from the Russian Federation or, according to the state - five regimental sets. All of them were to be delivered to India by 2024. But as of mid-2024, India had received only three regimental sets of S-400s.

When the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Russia initially did not renege on its export commitments, but the imposition of sanctions and the loss of air defence assets in the war zone changed the situation dramatically. Some time later, the Russian side informed the Indian side that the delivery of the remaining two regimental sets of S-400 SAMs would not take place before 2026.

The new deadline looked strange, if only because earlier Russia had been steadily transferring one regimental set to India every year. And starting from 2022, a four-year pause with promises to transfer two regimental sets? That is, not even one set in two years, but exactly two PCs in four years.

Such a promise may even end up with India getting nothing in 2026 but another promise to hand over two regimental sets in a couple more years - for example, by 2028.

Apparently, Russia is experiencing a serious problem with S-400 production after the sanctions were imposed. And this problem may be much more global than it seems at first glance and may consist of suspension of serial production and small-scale assembly at an embryonic level.

"Deal of the century"

During the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian occupation forces used S-400 systems on the most important routes and bridgeheads. At first, this component in the echeloned air defense of the Russian army was rarely hit, and their losses in 2022 and 2023 were not as great as those of other systems. But that all changed in 2024.

The transfer of U.S. ATACMS ballistic missiles to Ukraine has dramatically affected the reputation of the S-400 SAM systems, which have been destroyed non-stop. The systems, which, according to their tactical and technical characteristics, should have been able to intercept ballistic missiles without any problems, were burning every night from ATACMS coming at them. Although if you consider that the S-400 is a modernized S-300, which had problems intercepting ballistic targets, everything falls into place.

In 2024, the low effectiveness of the S-400 in countering ATACMS was proven, which, in turn, should have raised a number of questions from the operators of these complexes who had bought them earlier - China, Turkey, and India.

The S-400 SAM did not prove its capabilities and completely disgraced itself in Ukraine, not against the newest missiles, but against rather old versions of ATACMS. But another thing is important.

After the technical details of the S-400 became publicly available, its effectiveness will be reduced several times more, turning them into an absolute waste.

Conclusions

The scandalous BaumankaLeaks leak has put an end to the S-400. The problems of these systems had been known before, and the fact that they were basically a deep modernization of the S-300 rather than a next-generation system had always raised doubts about their quality and effectiveness.

The full-scale war in Ukraine has raised questions about Russia's ability to produce these systems under sanctions - and not just to meet export obligations, but simply its own needs.

The use of ATACMS and the systematic striking out of the S-400 has put an end to the question of the characteristics and capabilities of these complexes.