Russia takes advantage of Ukraine's ammunition shortage, inability to conduct sufficient counter-battery warfare - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report states this.

Referring to a report by the Ukrainian open-source organization Frontelligence Insight dated February 1, analysts say that from late 2022 to early 2023, Russian troops created stationary artillery firing positions for a long time, when the lack of ammunition limited Ukrainian counter-battery capabilities.

Frontelligence stated that Russian forces began to concentrate their artillery in a similar way in January 2024, suggesting that Ukrainian forces are again running low on artillery ammunition.

It also notes that Ukrainian forces can sometimes strike Russian artillery but overall lack adequate ammunition for effective counterbattery fire.

"The lack of Ukrainian counterbattery fire allows Russian artillery to largely destroy settlements, making it nearly impossible for Ukrainian forces to defend the settlements. Frontelligence stated that many of Ukraine’s FPV drones lack the range to strike the numerous Russian artillery pieces deployed 15 to 24 kilometers from the frontline," the report says.

According to the ISW, the lack of artillery ammunition and delays in Western security assistance could create uncertainty in the operational plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which would encourage Ukrainian troops to use more ammunition.

"This may force Ukrainian forces to make tough decisions about prioritizing certain sectors of the front over sectors where limited territorial setbacks are least damaging," the ISW report says.

• Back in December 2023, the commander of the Tavria forces, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces faced a shortage of artillery shells and were forced to curtail some operations due to a lack of assistance from Western allies.