ISW: Calls for the immediate annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk region indicate that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive causes panic in Russia

The Institute for the Study of War reports.

 American analysts note that the urgent discussion on September 19 among Russian proteges of the need for the immediate annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk regions shows that the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces cause panic in Russia. Therefore, Russian occupying authorities in Donbas were called to immediately hold a "referendum" on the recognition of the "DPR" and "LPR" as subjects of Russia.

 ISW draws attention to the fact that Margarita Simonyan,  Russian propagandist, spoke favorably of the call and named it a "Crimean scenario".  It will allegedly make it easier to threaten NATO with strikes in response to Ukrainian counterattacks and "untie Russia's hands."

 American experts consider this approach unexpected.  Russian troops do not control all of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.  Thus, the annexation of the territories will result in Russia annexing regions that, according to the Kremlin, will be partially "occupied" by the legitimate Ukrainian authorities.

 "The strikes on Crimea clearly demonstrate that Ukrainian attacks on territory illegally annexed by Russia do not automatically lead to Russian retaliation against NATO. A partial annexation at this stage would also put the Kremlin in a strange and humiliating position and force it to demand that Ukrainian forces "liberate" Russian  "territory". It remains unclear whether Vladimir Putin will want to get into such a predicament for the dubious benefit of easing threats to NATO or Ukraine with escalation, which he is unlikely to conduct at this stage," the ISW concluded.