How Russia prepares for third wave of Avdiivka offensive?
The situation in the Avdiivka sector, where Russian occupiers are losing 500 to 1,000 people a day, remains difficult
Russia is preparing for the third wave of the offensive on Avdiivka, Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko comments. Now there is a process of accumulation of mechanized component. This is clearly evidenced by the transfer of the 239th tank regiment and of the 90th tank division.
Predictably, the Russian forces will try to move to the right side of the railway during this wave of the offensive, gain a foothold and develop the offensive in the direction and subsequent occupation of the village of Stepove. This allows them to take fire control of Ukrainian key supply route 0542 and start moving in its direction and Berdychi.
They will also try to break into the industrial zone of Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant.
Obviously, from the south, the Russian forces from Vodyane will move to Sievierne in order to capture it and establish fire control over the 0542 road, with subsequent movement to Tonenke.
I think the Russian command is more adequately perceiving its capabilities now. And therefore, the Russian army plans to physically cut the 0542 route and encircle Avdiivka during the 4th wave of the offensive, which can be organized in the first days of December.
Two important points.
First — if it is obvious to me, it is all the more obvious to the Ukrainian command, and therefore, the third wave of the Russian offensive will not come as a surprise.
Second — all of the above should have been implemented by the Russian forces as early as October 10, during their first offensive in two echelons. But the encirclement of Avdiivka in 24 hours resulted in the Russian forces being stuck near the Coke and Chemical Plant for the second month.
Therefore, no matter how gloomy the scenario described above may seem, it is not yet certain that the Russian forces will be able to fully realize it.