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OPINION

How many Ukrainian defenders and Russian aggressors have fallen

30 November, 2023 Thursday
15:45

The question of Ukraine's losses in this war has been a taboo from the very beginning

Firstly, to avoid giving unnecessary information to Russia, and secondly, to prevent Ukrainian society from going completely crazy. But given that the war is dragging on, we have to face the truth.

Total Russian losses have exceeded 300+ thousand, of which, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, about half were killed. Do not believe journalists and bloggers who have not yet learned to understand the General Staff's reports: losses are not necessarily killed, they include hospitalized, captured, and missing. This means at least 150,000 dead Russian enemies.

According to the electronic Memory Book, the names of about 25 thousand of Ukrainian fallen have been accurately identified. The team estimates the completeness of their data at +/- 70%, so there are 30-35 thousand soldiers on the shield. Another 15 thousand, as the Ministry of Internal Affairs recently noted, are missing. Let's be honest, maybe a few hundred of them will be found in Russian captivity after the war, and the rest are also dead. So, in total, 45-50 thousand people gave their lives for Ukraine.

The 1:3 ratio is well suited to the style of warfare on both sides. The good news is that as Russian artillery combat capabilities degrade and Ukrainian develops, the balance may shift even more in Ukraine's favor. The bad news is that even with such a proportion, the Kremlin still has more human resources at its disposal than we do, so it will not be possible to simply kill them all. But destroying all Russia's equipment so that it has nothing to reinforce the infantry is a theoretically achievable task. However, it will take several years.

As a result, Ukraine has to take important but extremely unpopular steps, such as mobilizing 30-year-old "students." And to mend the holes at the border, where tens, if not hundreds of thousands of fugitives have leaked in, and to punish the corrupt officials who made those holes. But it is not clear what is more important for the authorities here - winning the war or the next election.

Source

About the author: Serhii Hromenko, journalist, security expert

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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