German government predicts new Russian offensive in April - media

This was reported by the Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung publication, as well as the German Focus and Kreiszeitung.

It is noted that the British special services do not consider it possible that Russia may launch a major offensive in the near future, but, according to NZZ, the forecast of the German Ministry of Defense foresees Putin's attack on the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donbas. At the same time, Moscow is counting on Belarus, led by Alexander Lukashenko.

There are two scenarios. The first one is distinguished by the use of Belarusian troops as a threat and distraction during a real Russian offensive.

If Belarusian troops appear on the border with Ukraine, “Ukrainian defenders will have to split up to repel a possible invasion from the north.” However, German analysts point out that Lukashenko, most likely, will not intervene directly in the war, but at most will deploy his army for threatening gestures, since the goal of the first scenario of the Russian offensive will be to completely take Donbas under Russia's control.

In the second scenario, Lukashenko's soldiers may prove to be a decisive force in the war. However, this possibility is considered quite unlikely.

The German Ministry of Defense believes that in this case, Putin would like to conquer all of Ukraine in a war on two fronts. But the West makes it clear that Ukraine should continue to be supported. In addition to the Patriot system, it is also planned to provide Ukraine with tanks for this purpose.

According to the second scenario, Belarus would attack Kyiv, and Russian soldiers would attack all over Donbas. The aggressor could also strike the western part of Ukraine.

“If Putin's army succeeds in advancing to the west of Ukraine, the troops can cut off Western supplies and force the Ukrainian government to capitulate. However, this strategy will require a general mobilization in Russia, as the Russian army is already significantly weakened by the war in Ukraine and will need more soldiers,” the Kreiszeitung emphasizes.

As Focus writes in its turn, the Russian forces in such a case will seek “to reach the Polish border in order to prevent the supply of weapons from the West and to occupy Transnistria, a region that 'broke away' from Moldova.”

“For the second scenario, a general Russian mobilization is necessary, the ministry believes (German Ministry of Defense - ed.), but this is “rather unlikely for domestic political reasons.” At the same time, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said just a few days ago that the number of (his - ed.) army should be increased to 1.5 million soldiers. 200,000 soldiers are currently undergoing military training, Putin himself said,” Focus concluded.