Espreso. Global

EU collapse, attack on NATO states, no plans to end Ukraine war: what Kremlin strategists advise Putin

19 December, 2023 Tuesday

A leaked document shows what Russian political scientists advise the Kremlin regarding the EU, NATO, China, and Ukraine

After nearly two years of Russia waging a full-fledged war against Ukraine, some voices in Europe are talking about the prospect of dialogue with Moscow, easing sanctions, and reducing aid for Ukraine.

However, pro-Kremlin politicians, or those who succumb to Kremlin blackmail, fail to recognize the essential issue: the Putin regime's objective extends beyond Ukraine. Russia is attempting to enslave Europe and impose its idea of international political order. Europeans must comprehend how Russians and ideologues of Moscow's hybrid aggression perceive them.

Insight News media outlet has analyzed the leaked Russian document to show what the Kremlin strategists, political scientists, and hybrid aggression ideologues advise Vladimir Putin.

The document of the Russian Academy of Sciences is authored by Sergei Karaganov, a sanctioned Russian political scientist. Karaganov and staff of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences published a report “Prospects for the EU and Great Britain and Russian policy on European direction.” In reality, the document is a strategy devised by "scientists" to undermine the EU, viewed through the prism of the "decaying west."

The document presents forecasts for the policies of the European Union and the United Kingdom for 2025–2030, as well as expert recommendations to the Russian government for further actions by Moscow to destabilize the situation on the continent in order to impose the Kremlin’s agenda.

Russians perceive Europe as uncertain and weak

According to the findings of Russian experts, the EU's reaction to the invasion of Ukraine was not so strong as to limit the desire to continue the war. Furthermore, the Russian political experts predict greater EU decline in their report.

Russian analysts noted that by 2030, the EU and Europe will face an even higher influx of migrants, forcing London and Brussels to devise new programs to support refugees while focusing on domestic issues.

According to Russian academics, this will have a direct impact on Kyiv's partner states' ability to expand their military-industrial complex and give military aid to Ukraine.

The Kremlin is pinning its hopes on the far right

Furthermore, the escalating migrant crisis provides Moscow with new possibilities of promoting Russian-backed political organizations and far-right parties to government positions. Russian analysts underline in the study that these groups want to restart talks with the Kremlin. After all, information concerning the Kremlin's financial ties to European right-wing radicals such as Marine Le Pen in France is not new.

So there is little question that Russia will continue its hybrid aggression, igniting violence in Asia and Africa, where a Russian Wagner paramilitary organization is active, assisting refugees from affected nations in illegally entering Europe.

This strategy benefits the Kremlin greatly since it boosts economic pressure on the West while also fueling internal political turmoil.

France as a “jocker” and hopes that radicals come to power

After analyzing the EU's response to all of the challenges of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Kremlin researchers found that there has been no consolidation of EU institutions and that Ukraine's support is mostly based solely on individual state initiatives. As a result, according to Putin's political scientists, Brussels will lose authority in 2025-2030, and member states will become further divided.

They believe that only by radically renewing their own political elites would Germany and France be able to rally everyone around the idea of resisting the Kremlin and therefore cementing the European Union. They believe this is due to the current governments' inability to strike an agreement with one another.

The Russians see France as a joker who could improve relations with Moscow and Beijing if far-right or far-left groups took power.

Hopes for easing sanctions, ties with “pragmatic” states

Russia recognizes that sanctions are unlikely to be lifted, but they hope for their easing. Instead, they argue that the European Union's sanctions policy will function as a unifying force in 2025-2030.

Every year, however, Western countries will face measures to protect their own economies and industries. That is why, according to Putin's experts, they will continue to purchase nuclear fuel and diamonds from Moscow.

Political experts advise Putin and his government to create collaboration with so-called "pragmatic" countries. Russian political scientists, ideologues of Russian influence expansion, refer to these countries as having a pro-Russian policy: Austria, Hungary, Greece, and Slovakia.

Russia intends to divide Europe, take the Suwalki corridor, and threaten with nuclear weapons

Russian regime ideologues devise a unique influence campaign for each country. Russians aim to promote the image that they are the "real Europe" and the "bearers of traditional values" to Balkan countries, as well as Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. At the same time, they highlight that while Poles will not entirely consume these narratives, their propaganda will add to the European Union's division.

The Kremlin advises maintaining maximum cooperation with Hungary, but warns that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban can only be a situational friend for Moscow.

In the wake of a so-called escalation of the conflict (after 2025), the document states that Russia should "move up the ladder of nuclear deterrence-intimidation" and, if they have the resources, seize or transfer control of the Suwalki corridor to "peacekeeping forces" from Russia-friendly countries. 

In other words, we're talking about an invasion of Poland and Lithuania, maybe involving Moscow's friends. They also discuss prospective attacks on Western airfields where F-16s are stationed.

Russian academics dream about dragging China into the Ukraine war

Russian political scholars believe that if the war between Russia and Ukraine continues or worsens, Ukraine will evolve into an anti-Russian bastion by 2025.

As a result, Russian regime ideologues feel that deploying a peacekeeping contingent from China, India, Pakistan, and Arab countries to central and western Ukraine would be Moscow's best option for its own security and the weakening of the EU. 

They intend to drag China into the war in such a way. Because Russian analysts have not offered a specific strategy, it is unclear how Putin will persuade China and put this notion into action.

No plans to end the war in Ukraine or hybrid aggression in Europe

It's also unclear how the ideologues of Russia's hybrid influence view the result of Putin's so-called "special military operation": through negotiations, pressure on Ukraine, or freezing the conflict. Even under these conditions, it is apparent that Russians live in confrontation with the West and hybrid assault against the EU, regardless of what Putin says or what security guarantees the Russians provide for the EU.

They believe that Ukraine's European partners have been unwilling to act decisively. The Russian regime sees weakness as a green light to escalate aggression.

Even if the conflict in Ukraine becomes a positional or frozen war, the Kremlin will not halt its offensive because the purpose of the war is still the same — this is not only the destruction of Ukraine but also the collapse of a united Europe for the sake of its own imperial ambitions.

For years, Russia's military and political leaders have cultivated a foreign policy image of a state capable of dialogue and ready to do anything to achieve its own objectives. Flirting with Western politicians, the Kremlin has repeatedly crossed red lines, assaulted peaceful countries, sparked migrant crises, committed crimes in other states, carried out hacker attacks, and interfered in global elections.

Under the pretext of diplomatic positions, a large network of Moscow spies weakened the world's security order, lied about Russia not being an aggressor country, and did everything possible to make civilized states react weakly to its provocative activities. This will not change if Russia's current administration remains in power.

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