Bakhmut defense is likely strategically sound effort despite costs for Ukraine - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this. 

Experts claim that despite the price that Ukraine pays, the defense of Bakhmut is strategically justified. If the Russians had taken the city easily, the losses would have been greater.

“Bakhmut itself is not operationally or strategically significant but had Russian troops taken it relatively rapidly and cheaply they could have hoped to expand operations in ways that could have forced Ukraine to construct hasty defensive positions in less favorable terrain,” the experts say. 

The report also emphasizes that the Ukrainian military has already used a similar model of fighting.

“Russian troops spent months attempting to grind through effective Ukrainian defenses in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in the early summer of 2022 and captured Lysychansk only after a controlled Ukrainian withdrawal from the area. The capture of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast administrative border, however, quickly proved to be operationally insignificant for Russian forces, and the ultimate result of the Ukrainian defense of the area was the forced culmination of the Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast, leading to the overall stagnation of Russian offensive operations in Donbas in the summer and fall of 2022.”

According to analysts, the defense of Bakhmut by the Ukrainian Defense Forces is likely to produce a similar result: the Russian troops have been transferring personnel and equipment to the area since May 2022, and to date have not achieved any significant success.

“ISW continues to re-evaluate its assessment that the Russian offensive on Bakhmut may be culminating but continues to assess that Ukrainian forces are effectively pinning Russian troops, equipment, and overall operational focus on Bakhmut, thus inhibiting Russia’s ability to pursue offensives elsewhere in the theater.”

• According to US intelligence, there are fierce battles in the area of ​​the Ukrainian cities of Soledar and Bakhmut, but the Russian troops do not have full control over any of these settlements.

• Germany's foreign intelligence service expressed concern over the "significant losses" of Ukraine's Armed Forces in the battles for Bakhmut, Donetsk region.

• Military expert, colonel of Ukraine's Armed Forces, Roman Svitan, noted that near Bakhmut, there are a lot of bodies of Russian soldiers near the Ukrainian Armed Forces' positions. 

• Later, military expert Serhiy Zgurets wrote for Espreso that “Soledar and Bakhmut are carrying out a mission of maximum destruction of the enemy. The General Staff evaluates the balance when it is necessary to withdraw and whether it is necessary or the line of defense allows maximum damage to the enemy.”