British intelligence explains why Russia started launching kamikaze drones from its Bryansk region

This was reported by the British Ministry of Defense on Twitter. 

British intelligence notes that on February 27, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine confirmed that it had shot down 11 Shahed drones out of 14 launched overnight. The head of the Kyiv City Military Administration, Serhiy Popko, said that 9 of them were shot down in the airspace near Kyiv. Another 3 UAVs were destroyed in the Chernihiv region.

Prior to this attack, there had been no reports of Iranian drones being launched at Ukraine since around February 15. This slowdown in UAV attacks likely indicates that Russia has exhausted its current stockpile and will be looking to replenish it.

"Due to the vector of the attack, these Shahed-UAVs were highly likely launched from the Bryansk Oblast, Russia. Previously, the only observed launch site since mid-December 2022 was from the Krasnodar region, across the Sea of Azov. A second launch site would give the Russians a different axis of attack, closer to Kyiv. This is likely to decrease time in the air over Ukraine and an attempt to further stretch Ukrainian air defences," British intelligence concluded. 

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 1 March 2023

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• On February 25, British intelligence said that Russia had not launched Iranian Shahed-136 drones against Ukraine for 2 weeks because it had probably exhausted its stockpile. 

• On the night of February 27, Russian troops attacked Khmelnytskyi with drones, killing 2 rescuers from the State Emergency Service. Eleven UAVs were destroyed. 

• On March 1, air defense systems shot down 5 Russian drones in the Poltava region.