British intelligence assesses Russia's ability to massively use aviation during new offensive

The British Ministry of Defense tweeted this in its daily report.

British intelligence claims that the Russian Aerospace Forces continue to deploy a similar number of aircraft in support of the Ukraine operation as they have for many months. Over the past week, the number of Russian sorties has increased after a slight slowdown. Air activity is now roughly in line with the daily average seen since the summer of 2022.

British analysts point out that, overall, Russian aviation is constrained by the high threat of Ukrainian air defense and dispersed basing due to the threat of air strikes on airfields. Russian warplanes operate almost exclusively over Russian-controlled territory, which does not allow them to effectively fulfill their strike role.

At the same time, the British disagree with the Ukrainian General Staff on the number of Russian planes destroyed, citing 130 against 298 according to Ukrainian official figures.

“Across Russia, the VKS likely maintains a largely intact fleet of approximately 1,500 crewed military aircraft, despite losing over 130 since the start of the invasion. However, it is unlikely that the VKS is currently preparing for a grammatically expanded air campaign as under the current battlefield circumstances it would likely suffer unsustainable aircraft losses," the British intelligence concluded.

• On February 16, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russians have lost 298 aircraft.  

• According to Western intelligence, Russia is massing aircraft to the Ukrainian border and could use them to support a ground offensive.