Biden makes strategic mistake in 2023, while China and India make money from war
2023 was a bad year not only for Ukrainians but also for our allies. The West publicly admitted its inability to provide Ukraine with the necessary ammunition
The United States is mired in internal conflicts and has not been able to resolve the issue of financial assistance for Ukraine. In the EU, Orban is playing everyone in the same place, and he has been reinforced by Fico Wilders from the Netherlands. In general, I don't see any trends for improvement next year, most likely it will be the same as this year, except for one thing - the growing demands for Ukraine to rely more on itself. We will continue to receive sluggish aid, untimely and with a lot of scandals.
US elections and lame Biden
The most important event of 2024 will be the US elections, and they are already underway and are hitting us hard. In the last year of elections in the United States, the president, who has little chance of being re-elected, is called a lame duck. Few people want to negotiate with him on anything serious and support his long-term initiatives, as his successor can quickly revise all this. Therefore, Biden is becoming a lame duck, and this seriously limits his influence and ability to do something for us.
In general, I think Biden made a strategic mistake this year. Not providing us with ATACMS and delaying the cluster munitions did a lot of damage to our counteroffensive. We lost a chance to break through the Russians and bring the end of the war closer. Biden lost a chance to show that his policy of supporting Ukraine was the right one, to demonstrate success and increase his chances of re-election. But the president, who began his administration with a shameful retreat in Afghanistan, risks losing his post in a stalemate in the Ukrainian-Russian war. I see no chance of his re-election under these circumstances.
“One of the very wrong things that is happening in our media space is the demonization of Republicans. Yes, they are not making decisions to help us now. But this is a matter of election campaigning, not their position on us.”
On the contrary, the Republicans are hawks, with representatives of the defense industry. They will in no way be against helping us and for peace with Putin. Amid this, Trump is being demonized even more. Let me remind you that in 2016, he directly said that the people of Crimea chose Russia. But in fact, it was Trump who gave us the first Javelins, even though he said that Putin was a normal guy. That's why I am convinced that Trump will support us, and perhaps even more than the Democrats do now. It is also a mistake for everyone to think that he will become president next year. No, after the election, there will be a 2-month transition period, and he will become president in January 2025, if he wins (and I am convinced of that).
China, India, and others
This year, China and India accounted for 60% of Russia's oil exports. And at a low price. Therefore, these two countries are simply enjoying and earning billions of dollars from our war. But the worst part is that their money is keeping Putin alive. Therefore, the main task for these countries in 2024 is to ensure that nothing changes. For Putin, stabilization at the front reduces the need for China to intervene. Because as I have repeatedly written: China cannot let Putin lose, but his victory is not their business.
"In general, all of Putin's partners or supporters are pure laborers. There is no ideology behind their support for Russia, except for selling their position profitably. Therefore, they are all interested in the conflict continuing and Putin not losing. Otherwise, they might get into trouble."
The key issue for us next year is sanctions. Since Putin has been able to impose a long war, every blow to his economy is much more important than a drone strike on Moscow. The problem with sanctions is not that there are few of them, but that they don't work well. And if I had the opportunity to influence our foreign policy, I would put the issue of the effectiveness of sanctions on a par with weapons. We have to ensure that the West not only imposes sanctions, but also enforces them on its companies and consumers. Without this, Putin will be able to fight for a very long time.
About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, publicist.
The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.