European sentiment for Ukraine shifts: Only 10% believe in military victory

The Guardian writes about it.

Co-author Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations emphasizes the need for a shift in how EU leaders discuss the war. He notes that while Europeans are eager to prevent a Russian victory, they doubt Kyiv's military success. The convincing argument for continued aid, he suggests, is its potential to lead to a negotiated peace favoring Ukraine.

The January poll across 12 EU member states indicates growing pessimism fueled by Ukraine's stalled counteroffensive, fears of a US policy shift, and uncertainty about Donald Trump's potential return to the presidency.

The report, titled "Wars and Elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine," finds that only 10% of Europeans believe Ukraine can win on the battlefield, while 20% predict a Russian victory. The most common opinion (37% average) is that the war will end in a compromise settlement.

Responses vary across countries, with some, like Poland and Sweden, leaning towards supporting Ukraine's fightback, while others, including Hungary and Italy, prefer pushing Kyiv to accept a settlement. The return of Trump to the White House is generally seen as bad news, except in Hungary.

The report highlights the challenge for Western policymakers to align falling public confidence in the war's outcome with the continued commitment to prevent a Russian victory. Co-author Ivan Krastev warns against portraying Ukraine's backers as the 'forever war' party, urging leaders to find new language resonating with current sentiment.

Krastev emphasizes that a Russian victory is not peace and warns against turning Ukraine into a no man's land. The report calls for a nuanced approach as Europe and the US enter the election season, emphasizing the critical need to define peace in the ongoing conflict.