Russian-Ukrainian war won't end in 2025

1. Victory of one side

This is straightforward. Currently, neither side is in a position of potential victory. Yes, the Russians might capture Pokrovsk, crawl into the Dnipropetrovsk region, or begin moving towards Zaporizhzhia, and so on. But this does not create any preconditions for victory. As long as the Ukrainian Armed Forces are operational and our government is functioning to some extent, there can be no victory for them.

2. Exhaustion of the sides

This condition is also not very noticeable at the moment. Ukraine is exhausted in terms of personnel, but if Biden finally sends (and this is already happening) the full scope of what was promised in the coming weeks, then things will look quite good for the country in terms of equipment and ammunition for 2025. At least for the first half of the year.

The same applies to the Russians. Yes, they have no shortage of personnel, but they are starting to experience problems with equipment. However, neither side is at the point of being unable to continue waging war.

3. Intervention of a third party

The intervention of a third party, such as NATO or China, could be a turning point. But, as we know, nothing of the sort is even being discussed from NATO's side, and China is focused on Taiwan.

4. Change in the interests of the sides

Unfortunately, there have been no public changes in Russia’s interests. We increasingly hear, "return to Istanbul negotiations or things will get worse." On Ukraine's side, there have been no changes in its interest to integrate into NATO. Thus, this condition does not apply.

5. Disappearance of the root causes of war

Similarly, none of the causes that led to the war have disappeared. Putin has not died, Russia has not collapsed, Ukraine has not fallen into internal conflict, and the U.S. has not disbanded NATO. In essence, neither Putin's paranoia nor the reasons for his paranoia have gone away.

Now to summarize: there are no preconditions for the end of the war in 2025.

The war will continue, and at least in the first half of 2025, it will maintain the same intensity as now. Russia will hold the initiative across the front but will pay an unbearable price for it. Ukraine will conduct successful operations, with a high probability of something resembling Kursk. However, the situation will persist at least until the summer of 2025. By then, a decrease in the intensity of hostilities is possible for the purpose of regrouping, replenishing forces, and transitioning to new offensive actions.

Source

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst, publicist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.