Targeting of Azerbaijani passenger jet is demonstrative act

I’ll allow myself to share some thoughts about the plane of Azerbaijan Airlines shot down by the Russians.

The question isn’t whether it was shot down — that’s obvious.

The focus should be on the reasons.

Negligence or intent?

I bet on the latter, based on the classic principle of cui prodest — who benefits?

To understand Russia’s likely motivation, let’s revisit a few points:

Despite its political model and circle of allies, Azerbaijan is not a puppet of Moscow. Baku’s “Kremlin vector” is simple: to maintain the status of a “satellite” only to the extent that it doesn’t lead to irreversible integration with the empire.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s systematic victories in the war against Armenia were not in Moscow’s interest — neither in terms of their consequences in Azerbaijan nor in Armenia.

Azerbaijan is both a symbiont and a competitor to Russia’s oil and gas empire.

Does the Kremlin appreciate the ruling Aliyev family monarchy as partners? Or does it want to replace them with pocket oligarchs of Azerbaijani origin, as happened in Tbilisi?

Rhetorical questions, aren’t they?

Azerbaijan's leadership, however, does not fear opposition victories and seems stable for at least the next decade.

But the Kremlin has no time to wait, and Baku understands this well.

That’s why Azerbaijan has no pro-Russian political factions funded by Russian corporations. Nor is there a crowd of “good Russians” with questionable origins fleeing “despotism.”

Since 2020, citing the pandemic, Azerbaijan closed its land borders, especially tightly with Russia. While empty train cars can cross from Derbent, “friendly tourists” cannot.

Although the pandemic is over, Azerbaijan hasn’t reopened land crossings for passengers, as the Kremlin hasn’t been “canceled.”

This self-isolation minimizes the risk of operations to overthrow power that Russia loves to conduct.

Moreover, over the past two years, Azerbaijan has used the Kremlin’s own ambitions against it, particularly with the so-called "peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh.”

In exchange for Moscow’s silence during the operation to push Armenians from Karabakh to Armenia, Baku agreed to “Russian peacekeepers.”

But these “peacekeepers,” unable to act militarily, could have entrenched themselves as a logistical base for “friendly tourists.”

That’s why the Kremlin eagerly pushed for boots near Shusha, thinking it had outsmarted Aliyev.

However, no entrenchment occurred, and they were ousted this summer.

Following this was the UN summit episode, which Greta Thunberg missed because she doesn’t fly, and Baku remains inaccessible otherwise.

The world’s attention to Azerbaijan provided its leadership a few more months of respite, delaying Moscow’s hybrid destabilization efforts.

And now, a demonstrative shelling of the Azerbaijani plane by Russian air defenses.

I predict increased pressure on Baku, with ultimatums to open land borders. Russian intelligence will act indirectly, leveraging the “million-strong diaspora” and “family ties.”

Azerbaijan faces an additional challenge as its narrow air corridor to Europe passes near Chechnya and Dagestan, home to clumsy air defenses.

Even if the missile targeting the plane was an accident, this incident will be used to push for opening the Samur border crossing persistently and aggressively.

Let’s see how Baku responds.

Condolences to the families of the deceased Azerbaijanis and citizens of Central Asia.

Source

About the author. Borys Babin is a Ukrainian scientist, public and political figure, Doctor of Law, Professor

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.