Trump's Achilles' heel is his meeting with Russian dictator

Never before, since the restoration of Ukraine’s independence, has the country’s fate depended so critically on the choice of the U.S. president. While part of the international and Ukrainian press demonizes Donald Trump, and another part places exaggerated hopes on him, the final word remains with the president of the United States.

It is no exaggeration to say that January 20, 2025, could mark a new era in world history. However, the uncertainty regarding whether the U.S. president will provide or withhold assistance to Ukraine has been dragging on for an incredibly long time. Meanwhile, it is in the interest of Russian dictator Putin to take a pause, gather much-needed resources, analyze the lessons from his numerous failures in Ukraine, prepare for the renewal of war, and launch a new phase whenever Moscow deems most favorable. The Kremlin has long considered Russia a superpower again and now wants the entire world to acknowledge it.

President Donald Trump sees himself as a master of "the art of the deal." However, there is no guarantee that he can offer something that would satisfy Ukraine.

The partition of Ukraine can never be considered real peace, as it would lead to greater escalation on the international stage. This, in turn, would dramatically worsen an already complex situation, initiating the dismantling of the global order that has existed for nearly eight decades.

If the United States allows Ukraine to be torn apart by Moscow, then Putin will soon claim that Greenland is a "disputed territory," escalate aggression against the Baltic states, Scandinavia, and Canada. Next, Moscow will declare that Alaska rightfully belongs to Russia, arguing that the czar was tricked into selling it unfairly cheap to the Americans. Thus, it would be time to correct this "shameful historical injustice." Meanwhile, China, observing the West’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, would be emboldened to occupy Taiwan.

Leaving Ukraine to face Russia alone would also give the green light to other global dictators, primarily Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping, signaling to them that they can now act without restraint. Their "legitimate prizes" could very well be South Korea and Taiwan. What seems unthinkable today could become reality if Trump’s advisors convince him that continuing aid to Ukraine is not in America's strategic interest.

The only weak spot for Donald Trump in the Ukrainian issue is how the war in Ukraine and the U.S. response to it will impact his historical legacy as the 45th and now 47th U.S. president. Everything else matters little to him. However, one hopes that after January 20, we will see a new Trump who becomes a strong supporter of preserving Ukraine’s sovereign, internationally recognized territories.

Trump’s historical legacy is precisely where Ukraine and the new U.S. president can align their interests. If Trump aids Ukraine, he will cement his place in American history as one of the greatest and most successful presidents.

But, and this must be addressed now, Trump’s Achilles’ heel is his meeting with the Russian dictator. Putin believes that with flattery and compliments, he can manipulate Trump, extracting what he wants without offering anything in return. If Trump agrees, even partially, to the Kremlin leader’s demands, and Putin later presents this as a major victory for Russia, the real beneficiary will be Putin, not Trump.

Therefore, Ukraine and its European allies must emphasize Trump’s geopolitical ambitions as a new American leader who never likes to lose.

Abandoning Ukraine, if it happens, could become Trump’s biggest political defeat. Starting his presidency with a failure that completely undermines his historical mission—something he and his closest circle believe in so deeply—seems an unwise move.

There is no doubt that Putin will once again try to push for a private meeting with Trump, as he did before in Helsinki. When the microphones were off, Trump appeared small, leaning forward in his chair, while Putin smiled, barely believing his luck as the U.S. president attacked his own FBI.

If Trump once again agrees to a secretive strategy that clearly favors Moscow, it would mean that the Kremlin’s position—"Give us what we want, and then we’ll talk"—has been silently replaced by actual quid pro quo negotiations. In such a scenario, Ukraine’s fate and that of its people would automatically be relegated to a secondary concern.

Resolving the Ukrainian issue within internationally accepted legal frameworks is something Putin considers a Sisyphean task. Any hopes in this regard seem futile. And Trump is not suited for this role—he lacks the strategic patience and diplomatic acumen. However, the silver lining is that while former U.S. President Joe Biden tried to untangle the Gordian knot, under certain circumstances, Trump might simply cut through it.

If Russia is indulged in its geopolitical ambitions, it will likely double its demands regarding Ukraine and its claims over the occupied eastern territories. For the Kremlin, "peace" is nothing but Ukraine’s capitulation, no matter how attractively Putin’s criminal regime tries to package it for the U.S. and the West.

Moscow’s games with "new territories," "referendums," constitutional annexation of Ukrainian lands, and granting Russia control over 20% of Ukraine are nothing more than a facade. A divided, weakened Ukraine would be swallowed by Moscow within a few years if Ukrainians foolishly accepted Putin’s version of "peace."

This is why the Russian "czar" is so determined to ensure that decisions about Ukraine are made without Ukrainians or Europe. He wants it settled through bilateral agreements between Putin and Trump.

Pressure is already being applied on Ukraine to agree to a "temporary" ceasefire, which would effectively allow Russia to retain its illegally occupied territories. If Ukraine were to accept such terms, it would receive neither real security guarantees nor a clear path to NATO and EU membership. It would also allow Russia to avoid paying reparations for the destruction of infrastructure in eastern and southern Ukraine. Moscow continues to demand Ukraine’s full capitulation under Putin’s maximalist conditions.

This is why the Russian dictator is eagerly awaiting a secretive meeting with Trump—so classified that even the interpreter’s notes would be confiscated to prevent any reconstruction of what was confidentially discussed between Trump and Putin.

If the U.S. leader agrees to this, their secret conversation might go something like this:

Putin: "Donald, I think you are a wonderful person and undoubtedly the greatest and smartest president in U.S. history. I need you to lift the sanctions, declare me the victor in my special operation—what we call it in Russia."

Trump: "Hard to disagree with you. I also consider myself a great person and the best choice for the United States. Anything else you’d like?"

Such a dialogue is entirely possible, as Trump believes himself to be the world’s best negotiator. This recalls his meetings with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and his past statements that he trusted Putin more than his own security services.

But illusions die last. If Trump decides to fight for a brilliant historical legacy, that is one thing. If not, and his primary concern is living each day as comfortably as possible, then...

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About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.