Russia’s top strategy: provoking elections in Ukraine with temporary ceasefire — political scientist

He shared this insight on Espreso TV.

"Russia’s key strategy remains provoking elections in Ukraine. An election campaign during wartime would be disastrous, triggering internal chaos. The Russians see this as a priority and are even willing to agree to a temporary ceasefire to set it in motion," Saakian said.

Ukraine must resist this trap, as elections should only take place when the war is truly over, with firm guarantees that it won’t restart within hours, days, or weeks.

"Imagine Ukraine launching an election campaign, lifting martial law, and opening polling stations. Then, Russia accuses Ukraine of shelling Kursk, claims the truce is broken, and launches a full-scale attack from all sides — this time learning from past mistakes. What will Ukraine’s defense capability look like at that moment, while its allies watch the chaos unfold? Without clear guarantees and a real end to the war, there’s no point in discussing elections at all," Saakian added.

Russia continues to push its influence through information campaigns and pro-Russian narratives, though without major success, he noted.

"Externally, figures like Tucker Carlson are echoing specific talking points. Meanwhile, occupiers engage in sabotage. These efforts create some instability, but they haven’t managed to shake the system completely — because society is holding firm," Saakian concluded.

• Meanwhile, the Kremlin keeps pushing the narrative that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is “illegitimate.” The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry dismissed these claims as “absurd.”