Government inaction led to mobilization crisis, analyst Yuriy Honcharenko says

According to the group’s research, the government failed to counteract the formation of negative narratives about mobilization as a punishment, neglected to prevent networks providing “legal protection from mobilization,” and missed opportunities to implement the "Reserve+" system. Additionally, they didn’t fulfill their promises on demobilization or address the warnings about violent resistance.

Honcharenko identified five key stages in the development of the crisis:

1. Spring 2022: Formation of negative narratives.
2. Summer-Fall 2022: Creation of networks providing legal protection from mobilization.
3. 2023: Provocations against recruitment officers.
4. 2024: Collapse of mobilization reform and crisis of trust.
5. Early 2025: Shift to open violence.

The expert noted that the situation could spiral out of control due to the lack of a systematic approach.

“Our observations show that a significant portion of Ukrainian citizens has turned against their own state. Ignoring this issue risks escalating violence and creating the danger of an uncontrollable uprising. Organized resistance networks against mobilization are active in every region. Instead of addressing the root causes, the government chose to remain silent on the problem,” Honcharenko said.

He also emphasized the need for Ukrainian politicians to be accountable for their statements to prevent the public from feeling unfairly treated.

“If the word ‘demobilization’ is mentioned, then please follow through with demobilization or stop using the term,” he added.

Explosions at recruitment centers have already resulted in casualties. On February 1, an explosion in Rivne killed one person and injured six others. On February 5, an explosion in Kamianets-Podilskyi, Khmelnytskyi region, led to the death of a man who brought explosives, and four others were injured.