West will keep Israel from acting against Lebanon, Iran — military expert Musienko

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"I think that there will be no major war in the Middle East now, in fact. This has already become clear from the statement that came from the United States, France, Germany and Britain – a joint statement that they support Israel in the fight against the Hamas terrorist organization. At the same time, they support the genuine desire for freedom of the Israeli and Palestinian peoples," he said.

Musienko noted that this outlines the boundaries of this operation, in which Israel can count on support in the fight against Hamas terrorists.

"At this stage, in the end, I think that no one will be happy with the idea of expanding the boundaries of this conflict, and the West will restrain Israel from taking any action against Lebanon, for example, or even more so against Iran. Therefore, I think that the forecasts are that somewhere in the near future it will end with the defeat of the Hamas terrorist group by the Israeli troops, and then the situation will go down for some indefinite period of time," he said.

The director of the Center for Military and Legal Studies pointed out that it is challenging to determine a specific timeframe, as it could range from months to potentially years. However, the situation is considered somewhat perilous and poses a threat to Western interests.

"This is because everyone is watching how the West reacts, including China and Russia. Therefore, any manifestation of weakness will be perceived as an encouragement to further actions by Iran and other players. But this is the situation today, which is not the worst option for us, because imagine if the United States were to get involved in a war with Iran right now. I think you understand what this would mean - it would not be a war between Israel and Hamas. It would be much bigger and more ambitious, and it would raise the question of whether we would receive the amount of aid we need and whether the attention would be focused on Ukraine at the proper level," Musienko emphasized.

Events in Israel: latest updates

On the morning of Saturday, October 7, 2023, the Palestinian armed groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad launched a massive air and land attack on the state of Israel in several places. The head of the Hamas military wing, Mohammed Deif, said that his militants had launched the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. According to him, these actions are intended to protect the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem.

The Palestinians launched 2,000 to 3,000 missiles at Israel and simultaneously seized 7 communities in the south.

In response, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced the mobilization of reservists and the launch of the Iron Swords counterterrorism operation. For the first time in 50 years, the government introduced martial law in the country. 

The IDF actively used aviation to strike Palestinian command posts. It has also begun clearing Hamas-occupied communities.

In addition, there is a great threat that the Shiite Hezbollah could attack Israel from the north, as its main partner and supplier, the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), has called on jihadists to "liberate Jerusalem."

On the morning of October 8, the Saudi television channel Al Arabiya published the losses of both Palestinians and Israelis during the first day of the renewed military conflict. According to the channel, Israel lost 300 people killed and at least 1,600 wounded. The number of casualties from the Palestinian-populated Gaza Strip is 232 killed and 1,627 wounded. 

On October 8, Israeli troops claimed that Lebanon had attacked their territory, so the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) attacked in response. In particular, Israeli aviation struck a complex belonging to the head of Hamas' intelligence.

Militants of the Lebanese military-political organization Hezbollah fired at Israeli positions on the border with the disputed Golan Heights and supported Hamas in its operation against Israel.

On the afternoon of October 9, the Israeli army regained control of all areas on the border with the Gaza Strip. At this, it is possible that there are still Hamas militants on Israeli territory

At night and during the day on the same day, the Israeli armed forces attacked the Gaza Strip. The main targets were command posts, homes of commanders, militants and ordinary soldiers of the Hamas terrorist organization. The Israeli Ministry of Defense ordered the military to put the Gaza Strip under blockade.

A number of countries have condemned the terrorist attack by Hamas militants and expressed support for Israel in its defense against aggression. Among them are the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, Germany, Ukraine, France, Hungary, the Netherlands, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Hungary, Norway, Cyprus, India, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Argentina, Australia, and the European Union.