What role Ukraine can play in U.S.-China confrontation?

Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko, writing for Oboz.ua, says that amid the U.S. strategy aimed to curtail Beijing's influence and reshape global dynamics, Ukraine has a unique and pivotal role in the success of Trump’s plans.

Even before his inauguration, Trump’s rhetoric caused concern worldwide. His remarks about Greenland and the Panama Canal hinted at a broader strategy that prioritized the interests of hegemonic powers over established norms of international relations. These statements, while unsettling, highlighted an inevitable confrontation with China, targeting its ambitions for global dominance. Beijing, watching carefully, understood the implications.

China's great ambitions

For decades, China has positioned itself as a rising global power, achieving this through calculated economic growth and strategic investments rather than overt military action. 

It possesses vast natural resources, including some of the largest shale gas reserves in the world, yet carefully conserves them while relying on imports and extracting resources from other nations. Beijing's interest in Greenland and its growing influence in the Panama Canal demonstrate its global ambitions. Investments in Greenland aim to secure access to Arctic resources, while its control of key Panamanian ports raises serious concerns for the U.S., given the canal's strategic importance.

Ukraine's role in U.S.-China power game

Ukraine’s significance in this global power struggle lies in its indirect influence on the U.S.-China dynamic. The ongoing war with Russia has exposed the limits of military power and strained Russia’s economy, leaving it increasingly dependent on China. 

This makes Ukraine a key factor in the geopolitical equation. For China, the prolonged war in Ukraine is a warning about the costs of large-scale military actions. At the same time, the U.S. sees Ukraine as a strategic opportunity to exert pressure on both Moscow and Beijing.

Trump’s approach to dealing with China and Russia reflects his preference for direct and pragmatic strategies. By leveraging China’s influence over Russia, the U.S. could pressure Beijing to moderate Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine. In return, concessions could be offered in other areas, such as limiting Chinese access to Arctic resources. Severe economic sanctions on Russia and disruptions to global oil markets could further isolate Moscow, leaving China with difficult choices. It could push Russia toward de-escalation in Ukraine, potentially reducing US pressure, or risk a prolonged confrontation with the US.

If China resists U.S. demands, the consequences could escalate beyond the economic sphere. Beijing might abandon its cautious strategy and pursue more aggressive actions in Taiwan or other disputed regions, heightening tensions in Asia. Ukraine’s resilience in its war with Russia serves as a critical example of the costs and consequences of aggression. 

The outcome in Ukraine will shape how the world responds to future challenges, including China’s ambitions.

• Professor Igor Eisenberg of Manhattan University believes Chinese leader Xi Jinping would seek to end the Russian-Ukrainian war if it harmed China's economic interests