Ukrainian intelligence intercepts report to Russian leadership on deliberate disruption of ‘grain deal’

This is reported by the Main Intelligence Directorate. 

The intelligence said that Russia's top military and political leadership received a closed final report "on the work of the Russian part of the joint coordination center during the implementation of the Initiative," which contains the technologies used to impede the implementation of the grain deal and eventually led to the final breakdown of the agreements.

The report notes that the so-called joint coordination center saw its main task as minimizing the volume of grain exported by Ukraine. It is stated that one of the elements of restraining the "uncontrolled growth of grain exports from Ukrainian ports" was "high-quality inspection of ships".

"Based on the results of the inspections, 46 vessels were restricted from participating in the Initiative (grain deal - ed.) and 303 vessels were restricted in movement for a total period of 342 days," the report concludes.

The document says that the disruption of the grain deal was divided into several stages.

"First, at the initiative of the Russian president, Russia's participation in the grain deal was suspended from 10/29/22 to 11/03/22. According to the document, this led to a drop in grain exports from 4.2 million tons in October to 2.6 in November. The next step is to restrict the access of vessels to Pivdennyi port, reduce the number of inspection teams (no more than two), and stop the registration of grain carriers," the statement says. 

Because of this, Ukraine was unable to export about 20 million tons of cargo. The Russians report that "the smallest amount of food exported from Ukrainian ports, 7.8 million tons, occurred during the third phase of the Initiative (from March 19 to July 17, 2023)."

Attention was also focused on the disruption of grain supplies under the World Food Program: "Ukrainian attempts to use the Black Sea initiative to continue the so-called Grain from Ukraine program involving vessels chartered under the World Food Program have been stopped. Such vessels were registered only after submitting written commitments not to participate in such actions."

In conclusion, the authors of the report inform that the "accumulated archive of knowledge" will be used in the future "in solving similar problems."

"The document shows that all actions to disrupt the grain deal are part of a single pre-designed plan. And the targeted shelling of Ukrainian port infrastructure is just another step in its implementation," the Ukrainian intelligence service concluded.

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Russia's termination of the grain deal

On July 16, the last ship loaded with Ukrainian agricultural products under the initiative left the port of Odesa. On 17 July, Russia announced the termination of the grain deal. In response, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that it was necessary to continue using the grain corridor even despite Russia's withdrawal from the agreement. And Kuleba began urgent consultations at the UN.

The White House condemned Russia's withdrawal from the grain deal, which played a crucial role in reducing global food prices.

On 18 July, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there were "certain risks" for parties trying to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative without Russia's participation.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that it was critical to restore transport links across the Black Sea to provide food to the world's most vulnerable countries and to preserve the ability to export Ukrainian goods.

On 19 July, it was reported that Ukraine was considering transporting food as part of the grain initiative through the territorial waters of Bulgaria and neighbouring Romania.

At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defence issued a statement threatening ships heading to Ukraine's Black Sea ports. On the same day, Putin named the conditions for Russia's return to the grain deal and demanded their immediate implementation

The EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said that the only response to Russia's threats to fire on Ukrainian grain ships could be to increase military aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced that starting July 21, all ships heading to the Black Sea in the direction of Russian seaports and Ukrainian ports in the temporarily occupied territory may be treated by Ukraine as military cargo.

On July 21, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he wanted to discuss the extension of the grain deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and expressed confidence that it will work again.

The same day, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken expressed hope that Turkey will help bring Russia back to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which it disrupted earlier in the week.